ETHJPY Market Overview

• ETHJPY opened at ¥629,375 and closed at ¥606,218, with a 24-hour high of ¥654,497 and low of ¥592,801.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, with RSI indicating overbought conditions during the early hours before bearish divergence emerged.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the Asia session, with volume spiking above 100,000 units during key price swings.
• Price tested a descending triangle pattern and breached critical Fibonacci levels, suggesting possible continuation of the bear trend.
• Divergence between price and turnover during the late US session suggests caution in near-term directional bets.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥629,375 and closed at ¥606,218 within the 24-hour window, reaching a peak of ¥654,497 and a trough of ¥592,801. The pair traded on a total volume of 6,594.26 ETH and a notional turnover of ¥3,982,860,906. The session was marked by volatile swings and multiple trend reversals, particularly as the Asian and European sessions progressed.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a descending triangle during the early part of the session, with a breakout to the downside confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern near ¥622,000. A doji formed near ¥611,000 during the late US session, indicating indecision. Key support levels were identified at ¥600,000 and ¥592,801, with ¥640,000 marking a critical resistance area that failed to hold during the afternoon.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged around ¥635,000 before diverging downward as the bear trend solidified. The daily chart showed the 50-period moving average falling below the 100-period and 200-period lines, forming a bearish crossover that confirmed the ongoing downtrend. Price action has remained below the 50-day SMA for most of the session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the midday session, triggering a bearish signal, while the histogram showed a gradual increase in bear momentum. RSI reached overbought levels of 72–75 in the early hours but quickly reversed into oversold territory, ending near 44. This suggests a strong bearish momentum phase, especially in the latter half of the day.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the early Asian session as volatility surged, with price trading near the upper band around ¥654,000. As the trend reversed, price moved closer to the lower band, reaching near the 592,000 level. This contraction-then-expansion pattern indicates a high probability of continued price action within the bands or a breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the morning hours, peaking above 150,000 units, coinciding with the formation of key bearish patterns and price action breakouts. Turnover also mirrored this activity, with the highest notional values observed during the ¥637,980 to ¥654,497 rally. Divergences between price and volume appeared in the late US session, with weaker volume supporting a potential near-term pause in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent ¥654,497–¥592,801 swing, the 61.8% level at ¥617,000 and the 38.2% at ¥627,000 provided temporary resistance. Price failed to hold these levels and continued its descent, suggesting a possible continuation toward the 23.6% retracement at ¥634,000 or beyond into the 0% level. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of ¥644,000 may act as a key psychological hurdle.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate potential entry and exit points using the ETHJPY dataset, a backtest could be conducted by applying the RSI strategy described in the additional text. For ETHJPY, using a modified RSI threshold of 65–70 (instead of the standard 70) may provide a better fit due to the pair’s higher volatility. A 5-day exit strategy could then be tested using the 2022–2025 historical data. Given the strong bearish momentum observed in the recent 24-hour period, incorporating a trailing stop-loss based on Bollinger Bands or Fibonacci levels could improve risk management and align with the observed price structure.