ETHJPY +2.55% Amid Short-Term Gains and Long-Term Volatility

On SEP 6 2025, ETHJPY rose by 2.55% within 24 hours to reach $635377. Over the past seven days, the pair climbed 3.74%, but over the last 30 days, it declined by 177.06%. In contrast, the annual performance saw a dramatic 2102.21% gain, highlighting the asset’s high volatility and long-term upside potential.

The recent 24-hour increase follows a series of choppy movements amid a broader bearish sentiment over the month. Traders appear to be capitalizing on short-term buying momentum despite the sharp decline in the previous month. Technical indicators suggest a consolidation phase has begun, with the 50-period and 200-period moving averages showing signs of convergence. This suggests potential for a breakout in either direction, depending on upcoming market catalysts and on-chain activity.

The monthly drawdown of nearly 177% underscores the heightened risk profile of the pair, particularly in the context of macroeconomic factors and crypto market sentiment. Analysts note that while the short-term upward move is positive, the broader trend remains bearish. A key level of interest lies around the 200-period moving average, which has historically acted as a psychological support for the pair.

The weekly 3.74% increase suggests that ETHJPY may have found a temporary floor following the steep monthly decline. This could be interpreted as a technical rebound rather than a reversal in the longer-term trend. Price behavior over the next few sessions will likely confirm whether this is a continuation of bearish momentum or the early stages of a potential recovery phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A hypothetical strategy has been proposed based on the recent price action and technical indicators observed. The approach involves using a combination of moving averages and a relative strength oscillator to identify potential entry and exit points. The 50-period and 200-period moving average crossover serves as the primary signal, while the RSI provides confirmation of overbought or oversold conditions.

The strategy is designed to enter long positions when the 50-period MA crosses above the 200-period MA and the RSI is below 30, signaling a potential oversold condition. A short position is initiated when the 50-period MA crosses below the 200-period MA and the RSI is above 70, indicating overbought conditions. Stop-loss levels are placed at key support and resistance levels identified through historical price action.