Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) Market Overview

Summary
• ETHJPY opened at ¥526,500, peaked at ¥537,530, and closed at ¥531,129 on 2025-11-06.
• Volatility expanded in the early session, followed by consolidation near ¥530,000.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions, but volume failed to confirm bullish momentum.
• Key support levels at ¥528,000–¥525,000 appear resilient, with potential for a test.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction, hinting at possible breakouts.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened the 24-hour period at ¥526,500 and reached an intraday high of ¥537,530 on 2025-11-05 20:15 ET. The pair found support at ¥525,537 before closing at ¥531,129 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 1,684.47, and total turnover reached ¥877.4 million.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish harami at ¥534,622–¥534,876 and a bearish engulfing candle at ¥534,760–¥532,267, indicating mixed sentiment. Key resistance appears at ¥535,000–537,530 and ¥528,000–530,000 as support. The 24-hour range is narrow, pointing to possible consolidation or a breakout in the near term.

Engulfing Candles and Dojis

A bearish engulfing candle at ¥534,760–532,267 and a doji at ¥530,280–528,688 suggest uncertainty. These formations could signal a pause in the bullish trend and a retesting of prior supports.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are trending upward, with price hovering just above the 50SMA. On the daily chart, the 200SMA is likely below ¥520,000, and ETHJPY is well above that line, indicating a long-term bullish bias.

Trend Confluence

The convergence of 15-minute and daily moving averages suggests a bullish bias, with price holding above key moving averages. However, a drop below ¥528,000 could trigger short-term bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

RSI is approaching overbought territory (75–80), but divergence between price and RSI in the last 2–3 candles indicates weakening momentum. MACD remains positive with a narrowing histogram, suggesting that bullish momentum is slowing.

Overbought Conditions

The RSI reaching overbought levels implies that the upward move may face resistance soon. However, without a bearish reversal confirmation, the trend could still continue.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the bands widening after a period of tight consolidation. Price currently sits near the upper band at ¥535,000–537,530, suggesting a potential overextension.

Volatility and Expansion

The recent widening of the Bollinger Bands implies increased uncertainty in price direction. A retest of the lower band at ¥525,000–528,000 could signal the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased during the initial upward move, particularly between ¥531,000 and ¥535,000, but declined during the consolidation phase. Turnover remains consistent with typical trading patterns.

Divergence and Confirmation

Despite the rise in price, volume failed to expand significantly during the recent highs, indicating potential bearish divergence. This could foreshadow a reversal or sideways consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the most recent swing high at ¥537,530 and swing low at ¥525,537 suggest key retracement levels at ¥531,761 (38.2%) and ¥528,788 (61.8%). These levels align with strong resistance and support areas.

Short-Term Retracement Levels

The 61.8% retracement level at ¥528,788 coincides with prior support, reinforcing its importance. A break below this level could signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could focus on identifying ETHJPY’s key swing levels and using Bollinger Band breakouts as entry triggers. For example, a long position could be entered when price breaks above the upper band with increasing volume, and a stop could be placed just below the most recent swing low. This method, when applied to a 1-day holding period, may capture short-term bullish momentum.

Looking ahead, ETHJPY may test ¥535,000–537,530 resistance or retest support near ¥525,000. A failure to hold above ¥528,000 could trigger a correction, but a strong close above ¥535,000 would reinforce bullish bias. Investors should remain cautious for signs of bearish divergence and volatility compression.