Ethereum Whale Activity and the Implications for ETH Price Momentum in Q4 2025

Ethereum's Q4 2025 price trajectory has been shaped by a confluence of macroeconomic pressures, on-chain whale behavior, and leveraged positioning dynamics. As the crypto market navigated a deleveraging event and institutional accumulation, Ethereum's price momentum revealed a complex interplay between speculative trading and long-term structural strength. This analysis explores how whale activity and leveraged positioning metrics serve as leading indicators of market sentiment, offering insights into Ethereum's potential for recovery in early 2026.

Q4 2025 Macroeconomic Context and Deleveraging Event

Ethereum's Q4 2025 performance was heavily influenced by tightening liquidity and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, which exacerbated volatility in the derivatives market. Open interest for Ethereum futures plummeted by over 50% from its $70 billion peak, compared to Bitcoin's 38% decline, as overleveraged long positions were liquidated. This deleveraging event, triggered by a 38% price drop from $4,700 to $2,900, marked a reset in leverage across the market. According to a report by Mexc, this "cleansing process" may position Ethereum for a stronger recovery in Q1 2026 as risk-on sentiment returns.

Whale Accumulation and Retail Selling Divergence

On-chain data reveals a stark divergence between whale accumulation and retail selling. Large holders (100–100,000 ETH) added 934,240 ETH in three weeks amid market dips, while retail traders offloaded ETH via wallets under 0.1 ETH. A single whale injected $120 million into Ethereum in a single day, accumulating $1.7 billion over seven weeks. This institutional confidence contrasts with $1.42 billion in ETH spot ETF net outflows in November 2025, signaling short-term selling pressure.

The accumulation by whales suggests a belief in Ethereum's fundamentals, including the Dencun hard fork's scalability improvements and growing layer-2 adoption. Meanwhile, retail selling has historically preceded price rebounds in Ethereum cycles, with on-chain indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) showing bullish divergence.

On-Chain Metrics as Leading Indicators

Ethereum's on-chain fundamentals remain resilient despite macroeconomic headwinds. Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ethereum-based protocols stabilized at $70 billion post-November 2025, while Total Value Secured (TVS) reached an all-time high of 36.27 million. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of 1.27 and Binance's 1.0 metric indicate Ethereum is in a neutral to fair value zone. Whale addresses retesting their realized price further reinforce accumulation at current levels.

Institutional demand has also surged, with Ethereum Treasury BitMine increasing holdings to 3.63 million ETH and a BlackRock client acquiring tens of millions of dollars' worth of ETH. These actions highlight Ethereum's appeal as a store of value and its role in corporate treasuries.

Technical Analysis and Future Outlook

Technical indicators suggest Ethereum is in a "bottom-building phase," with key resistance at $3,063 and support at $2,800. If Ethereum breaks above $3,063, it could target $3,400, while a drop below $2,800 risks a deeper correction toward $2,100–$2,700 institutional demand zones. XWIN Research Japan anticipates a "choppy, sell-on-rally" price action in the short term, but stabilized on-chain metrics and the Dencun upgrade position Ethereum for long-term growth.

Conclusion

Ethereum's Q4 2025 price momentum reflects a tug-of-war between macroeconomic pressures and on-chain resilience. Whale accumulation and deleveraging events have acted as leading indicators of market sentiment, signaling potential for a stronger recovery in early 2026. While short-term volatility persists, Ethereum's structural upgrades and institutional adoption provide a foundation for renewed bullish momentum. Investors should monitor key on-chain metrics and macroeconomic catalysts, such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, to gauge the next phase of Ethereum's price action.