Ethereum/Tether Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Move with Divergences

Summary
• ETHUSDT opened at $3272.97, surged to $3366.62, and closed at $3309.19 amid choppy volume patterns.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish as RSI approached overbought levels and MACD signaled mixed signals.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Bands, but volume failed to confirm key breakouts.

Ethereum (ETHUSDT) opened at $3272.97 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3309.19 at the same time on 2025-11-07. The pair touched an intraday high of $3366.62 and a low of $3210.01. The 24-hour volume totaled 568,716.34 ETH, translating to a notional turnover of approximately $1.87 billion based on the average price.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period displayed a bearish divergence in the latter half, particularly from 07:00 to 17:00 ET, where higher highs were not matched by higher closes or volume. A key support area appears to be forming around $3210–3230 after the price bounced off the 24-hour low. A doji was observed at $3366.62 on the 04:00 ET candle, suggesting indecision at the top of the move. Resistance is now likely to be tested near the $3350–3360 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price traded above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages early in the session, but both lines have crossed below the 24-hour close. This suggests a bearish shift in the near-term trend. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is currently around $3300, aligning with the current price and potentially serving as a pivot point in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a peak in bullish momentum early in the session, but it has since contracted and turned bearish after 09:00 ET. The RSI reached 70 twice, indicating overbought conditions, yet price failed to break past $3366.62 on both occasions. Now at 52, the RSI suggests a potential consolidation phase, with bearish momentum taking over in the last 6 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically following the price’s push to $3366.62, causing the Bollinger Bands to widen. The price spent time outside the upper band but failed to hold above it, suggesting a lack of conviction. Currently, ETHUSDT is sitting near the middle band with a slight downward bias. A retest of the lower band near $3210–3230 could indicate a continuation of bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly variable throughout the session, with notable spikes at the highs ($3366.62) and the lows ($3210.01). However, volume failed to confirm the strength at the top, as it was lower than the preceding bullish candle. Notional turnover peaked at $324 million at the high and dipped below $100 million in the final 4 hours, hinting at exhaustion and potential consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 24-hour swing from $3210.01 to $3366.62, the 61.8% retracement is at $3292, closely aligning with the current price. This suggests a potential support zone for the next 24 hours. The 38.2% level is at $3333 and may serve as a minor resistance ahead of the key 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price patterns and divergences, a backtest using a MACD Golden Cross strategy could be valuable in evaluating if trend-following signals align with recent volatility and volume dynamics. The hypothesis would be to enter long positions on a MACD crossover with a one-week holding period. ETHUSDT's behavior over the last 24 hours highlights the importance of volume confirmation and RSI levels in filtering out false signals.