Ethereum/Tether Market Overview

• Price opened at $4600.39 and closed near $4474.92, declining by ~2.8% over 24 hours.
• A bearish divergence emerged in the final 3 hours, with falling prices and declining turnover.
• Volatility expanded early before contracting into a narrow range in the last 4 hours of the session.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, while MACD showed bearish crossover, reinforcing downward momentum.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4600.39 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $4474.92 by 12:00 ET. The pair hit a 24-hour high of $4636.22 and a low of $4445.64, with total volume of 281,477.76 ETH and notional turnover of approximately $1.28 billion. A clear bearish bias has emerged over the last 6 hours, with price failing to hold key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $4605–4607 during the early morning session, signaling a shift in sentiment. A series of lower highs and lower lows emerged after 03:00 ET, indicating bearish control. Key support levels at $4582.56 and $4553.44 were breached with confirmation candlesticks. A potential 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4496.0 may act as a near-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term weakness. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at ~$4640, well above the current price, indicating a bearish crossover. The 100- and 200-period MAs are also positioned above current levels, reinforcing a downtrend in medium-term momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at ~04:00 ET, initiating a bearish trend, with the histogram widening as selling pressure increased. RSI reached an oversold level of 26 by 16:00 ET, suggesting potential near-term stabilization. However, the lack of bullish divergence raises concerns about a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early session, with price reaching the upper band at $4636.22. By 04:00 ET, volatility contracted, and price remained within the bands for 12 hours, indicating consolidation. The recent breakdown below the lower band at ~$4462.82 suggests increased bearish pressure and potential for further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the 03:45–04:00 ET window as price broke below key support, confirming bearish sentiment. However, notional turnover has declined since 10:00 ET, indicating reduced conviction in the downtrend. A divergence between price and volume suggests the move could lose steam, though the overall trend remains bearish.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels on the recent swing high of $4636.22 are at $4567 and $4506, respectively. Price is currently testing the 61.8% level, with a potential bounce or breakdown expected to dictate the near-term direction. A breakdown below $4496 would align with a larger bearish trend on the daily chart.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy utilizing a combination of RSI oversold thresholds and a bearish MACD crossover would have triggered a short signal at ~04:30 ET on 2025-09-19. A stop-loss at $4600 (a 3.5% buffer above entry) and a take-profit at $4450 (a 3% target) would have captured the majority of the decline. The strategy’s efficacy is supported by the current divergence in momentum and volume, though higher volatility and slippage must be accounted for in execution.