El restablecimiento técnico y estructural de Ethereum: ¿un precursores para una nueva fase alcista?

Ethereum's market structure in late 2025 is at a critical inflection point, marked by a confluence of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic signals. As the crypto market grapples with volatility and uncertainty, Ethereum's price action and underlying metrics suggest a potential structural reset-a phase that historically precedes major bull cycles. However, the path forward remains fraught with risks, requiring a nuanced understanding of both bullish and bearish dynamics.

Technical Indicators Signal Structural Reset

Ethereum's recent price action has ignited optimism among technical analysts. A confirmed breakout from a bullish pennant pattern on the 4-hour chart projects a target near $3,700. This continuation pattern, often associated with sustained trend momentum, indicates that short-term buyers are gaining control after a period of consolidation. The pattern's validity hinges on ETH maintaining above the $3,400 resistance cluster-a level that includes the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, VWAP resistance, and a bearish order block.

Whale activity further reinforces the case for a structural reset. Mid-sized and large ETH holders have accumulated over 800,000 ETH between mid-October and early December 2025, signaling confidence in the asset's long-term value. Such accumulation patterns have historically preceded major price surges in prior cycles, including the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. However, the bearish bias remains intact if ETH fails to reclaim $3,400, potentially dragging the price back toward $2,800 support-and even deeper into the $2,199 region.

On-Chain Metrics Reflect Supply Dynamics

Ethereum's on-chain metrics paint a mixed picture of supply constraints and demand pressures. Centralized exchange balances have plummeted to 8.6% of the total supply-the lowest level since Ethereum's public trading debut in 2015. This tightening of liquidity suggests that retail selling pressure is waning, a condition that often amplifies price reactions during periods of high demand.

Meanwhile, staking participation has surged to 29.4% of the total supply, with 35.6 million ETH locked in 1.07 million validators. This represents a structural shift in Ethereum's supply dynamics, as staking locks liquidity and reduces circulating supply. However, the bearish narrative is supported by institutional balance-sheet stress. Ether treasury holders are grappling with significant unrealized losses, which could curb demand as capital flexibility diminishes.

November 2025 also saw a surge in on-chain activity, with daily transactions nearing 1.5 million and active addresses approaching 600,000. Despite this, Ethereum recorded its second-worst monthly return in three years, underscoring the fragility of demand amid macroeconomic headwinds like the U.S. government shutdown according to recent market reports.

Macro and Sentiment Factors: A Mixed Bag

The macroeconomic landscape remains a double-edged sword. A dovish Federal Reserve trajectory and ETF inflows have provided some optimism, particularly after spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $2.8 billion in a single week, including a $1.02 billion inflow on August 11. Yet, recent outflows from Ethereum ETPs and weak volume during rebounds suggest caution among investors according to market analysts.

Gas usage on Ethereum hit an all-time high in 2025, driven by swaps, NFT mints, and layer-2 activity. This surge in computational demand reflects robust network engagement but also highlights the challenges of scaling. While high gas usage is a positive sign for Ethereum's utility, it could deter new users during periods of elevated costs.

Risks and Caution in a Volatile Market

Despite the bullish signals, Ethereum's broader market structure remains bearish. Lower highs and a lack of conviction in volume during rebounds indicate that sellers still hold the upper hand. Institutional holders, in particular, face balance-sheet pressures that could exacerbate downward momentum if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further.

For traders and long-term holders, disciplined risk management is paramount. Stop-loss placement, dollar-cost averaging, and position sizing can mitigate the inherent volatility of this phase. The key will be monitoring whether Ethereum can sustain a breakout above $3,400-a level that could validate the bullish pennant and trigger a retest of prior resistance.

Conclusion

Ethereum's technical and structural reset in late 2025 presents a compelling case for a potential new bullish phase. The combination of whale accumulation, low exchange balances, and staking-driven supply constraints suggests a tightening of liquidity that could catalyze a price surge. However, the bearish risks-ranging from institutional balance-sheet pressures to macroeconomic uncertainties-cannot be ignored. Investors must remain vigilant, balancing optimism with caution as Ethereum navigates this pivotal juncture.