Ethereum Set for 95% Copycat Rally Against Bitcoin

Ethereum appears to be forming a bullish reversal pattern on the ETH/BTC chart, suggesting the potential for a 95% price increase if it breaks above the 0.042 BTC neckline. This inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is seen as a classic sign of a trend reversal, typically marking the final phase before a significant upward move. If confirmed, the pattern could push the pair toward 0.066 BTC, which equates to a 95% gain from current levels.

The pattern bears resemblance to a similar structure observed in 2019–2021, when Ether outperformed Bitcoin after breaking above a comparable neckline. Analyst Michael van de Poppe also noted that Ether bottomed out in April 2025 and is likely to continue gaining against Bitcoin in 2026. This aligns with broader institutional optimism, including Standard Chartered's recent forecast that 2026 will be a pivotal year for Ethereum's relative performance.

However, the bullish scenario could be invalidated if ETH/BTC fails to consolidate above the neckline. On shorter time frames, the pair appears to be forming a bear pennant pattern, which typically signals a continuation of the downward trend if a breakdown occurs. A confirmed breakdown near 0.024–0.025 BTC would invalidate the inverse head-and-shoulders structure and confirm continued underperformance against Bitcoin.

Why Did This Happen?

The ETH/BTC chart pattern has emerged as part of a broader market structure shift, where Ethereum is showing signs of regaining relative strength after a period of underperformance. This is supported by on-chain data showing institutional activity, including Bitmine Immersion's continued accumulation of Ether. As of January 11, 2026, Bitmine holds 4.168 million ETH, or about 3.4% of the circulating supply.

Analysts at Standard Chartered argue that Ethereum's fundamentals are strengthening, particularly in stablecoin, decentralized finance (DeFi), and real-world asset adoption. These developments, combined with ongoing network scaling improvements, are expected to drive greater institutional and retail adoption over the next 18–24 months.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market participants are closely monitoring both the ETH/BTC neckline and shorter-term bear pennant for signs of confirmation or breakdown. A breakout above 0.042 BTC would provide immediate validation for the bullish scenario, potentially triggering a rally toward 0.066 BTC. Conversely, a breakdown below 0.024–0.025 BTC would reinforce the bearish thesis and suggest that Ethereum remains in a relative downtrend against Bitcoin.

In addition to technical signals, investors are watching broader market sentiment and institutional flows. Coinshares reported a $454 million outflow from crypto last week, with Bitcoin and Ethereum being the most affected assets. However, some altcoins, including XRP, Solana, and Sui, attracted inflows, suggesting shifting capital allocation patterns.

Standard Chartered expects Ethereum's relative strength to continue, with the ETH-BTC ratio projected to gradually return to 2021 levels of around 0.08. Meanwhile, Bitmine Immersion's continued ETH accumulation, combined with its strategic plans for the MAVAN staking platform, could further support Ethereum's bullish narrative.

What Could Go Wrong?

Despite the positive technical and institutional signals, several risks remain. A failure to break above the neckline could result in renewed selling pressure, dragging the pair back toward key support levels. Additionally, broader macroeconomic factors, such as U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, could influence risk sentiment and impact crypto markets.

Analysts also note that retail demand for Ethereum derivatives has been declining, as evidenced by falling futures open interest. As of January 12, open interest for ETH futures stood at $39.72 billion, down from $40 billion the previous day. This suggests that retail participation may be cooling, which could limit upside potential in a market that often relies on speculative trading.

Investors should remain cautious and monitor both technical and on-chain signals. A confirmed breakout above 0.042 BTC would open the door for further gains, but a breakdown below 0.024–0.025 BTC would signal renewed weakness in the ETH/BTC pair and reinforce the bearish narrative.