El éxito del «escalado» de Ethereum y la contradicción del valor de las monedas

Ethereum's 2025 has been a story of technical triumph. The network's scaling upgrades-Dencun, Pectra, and EIP-4844-have slashed gas fees, expanded throughput, and cemented Ethereum's role as the backbone of decentralized finance (DeFi) and Web3 innovation. Yet, despite these advancements, Ethereum's native token, ETH, has underperformed relative to its network's growth. This article unpacks why Ethereum's infrastructure success has not yet translated into ETH price appreciation, exploring the interplay of supply dynamics, competition, and macroeconomic forces.

The Scaling Success Story

Ethereum's 2025 upgrades have delivered measurable improvements in scalability and affordability. Average transaction fees have plummeted to $0.30–$0.33 per transaction, down from pandemic-era peaks of over $53 in 2021. Gas prices, measured in gwei, now hover at 1–3 gwei, a stark contrast to the 220 gwei spikes of 2020–2021. These reductions are driven by protocol-level innovations like blob transactions and increased block gas limits, which optimize data storage and reduce congestion.

Layer-2 (L2) solutions have further amplified Ethereum's scalability. Platforms like Arbitrum and Optimism now handle 58%–65% of Ethereum's transaction volume, with fees as low as $0.03 under optimal conditions. This shift has enabled Ethereum to process 2.2 million transactions daily in late 2025, including over 180,000 NFT transactions while maintaining stable gas costs. The network's DeFi ecosystem has also thrived, with $68 billion in total value locked (TVL) and a daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volume of $4.93 billion.

The Token's Struggle: Why Growth Isn't Reflected in Price

Despite these metrics, ETH's price performance has lagged. As of late 2025, ETH trades at around $2,924, down over 12% in the past year. This divergence between network utility and token value stems from three key factors:

1. Competition and Market Share Erosion
   Blockchains like Solana have challenged Ethereum's dominance in transaction throughput and DEX volume, occasionally surpassing it in daily activity. While Ethereum retains 87% of DEX volume and leads in DeFi TVL, its market share in raw transaction numbers has eroded, diluting demand for ETH as a settlement asset.

2. Macroeconomic Headwinds
   Global macroeconomic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates and geopolitical instability, have dampened risk-on sentiment. A one-percentage-point increase in the 10-year Treasury yield historically correlates with a 28% drop in ETH prices, while a decrease could drive a 35% rally. In 2025, these factors have created a volatile environment where Ethereum's long-term fundamentals are overshadowed by short-term uncertainty.

3. Supply Dynamics and the Erosion of Scarcity
   Ethereum's post-Merge deflationary narrative has weakened. EIP-4844's introduction of blob transactions reduced mainnet activity and burn rates, as users shifted to cheaper L2s. While Ethereum's staking participation (29.4% of total supply) has tightened supply, the network's issuance-burn balance is now less predictable, undermining the "ultra sound money" narrative that once drove ETH's value according to market analysis.

The Scarcity Paradox: Utility vs. Scarcity as Value Drivers

Ethereum's economic model has evolved from scarcity-driven value to utility-driven demand. Pre-Merge, ETH's deflationary burn rate (peaking at 0.5% annualized in 2022) was a key narrative. By 2025, however, burn rates have declined as L2 adoption grew, and the token's value proposition has shifted toward its role as a settlement and staking asset according to market analysis.

Institutional adoption has further complicated this dynamic. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, launched in July 2024, injected $28.6 billion in assets under management by Q3 2025, yet ETH's price only rose to $5,694 in October before retreating. This suggests that institutional inflows, while bullish for long-term adoption, have not yet translated into sustained price momentum.

Conclusion: A Tale of Two Metrics

Ethereum's 2025 achievements-lower fees, higher throughput, and robust DeFi growth-underscore its foundational role in Web3. However, the token's price performance reflects a market still grappling with macroeconomic uncertainty, competitive pressures, and a shifting economic model. While Ethereum's roadmap (PeerDAS, proto-danksharding) promises further scalability and efficiency, the disconnect between network utility and token value highlights the complexity of valuing blockchain assets. For investors, the key takeaway is that Ethereum's success is no longer measured solely in ETH price but in its ability to sustain a thriving ecosystem of applications, users, and institutions.