Ethereum's Path to Recovery: Why a $2,750 Retest Is a Buy Opportunity

Ethereum's journey in late 2025 has been defined by a delicate balance between institutional strength and short-term bearish pressure. While the asset faces immediate technical headwinds, on-chain fundamentals and macro-level positioning suggest a compelling case for a strategic retest of $2,750 as a high-conviction entry point. This analysis synthesizes on-chain data, institutional trends, and technical structure to argue that Ethereum's next move hinges on a controlled pullback to this critical support level.

On-Chain Fundamentals: A Foundation of Stability

Ethereum's exchange reserves have reached historic lows, signaling a structural shift in market behavior. As of December 2025, only 8.8% of the total ETH supply is held on exchanges-the lowest level since Ethereum's launch in 2015 according to Unchained Crypto. This metric underscores a critical reality: retail and institutional investors are increasingly holding ETH off-exchange, reducing the likelihood of large-scale selling. Between December 3 and 9, 2025, exchange reserves saw a net inflow of just 28,320 ETH despite a 10.7% price surge from $2,998 to $3,318 as reported in DarkEx analysis. The minimal inflow suggests that holders are not capitalizing on short-term gains, reinforcing the idea that selling pressure remains muted.

Institutional demand has further solidified Ethereum's base. Q3 2025 saw ETF inflows exceed $3.2 billion, with entities like BitMine Immersive Technologies and FalconX acquiring significant ETH holdings according to MEXC Crypto Pulse. Staking yields, now above 4% annually, have attracted long-term capital, while Ethereum's correlation with gold-reaching 0.7 in Q3-has positioned it as a digital store of value as indicated by Brave New Coin. These trends indicate that Ethereum is no longer a speculative asset but a foundational infrastructure play with institutional-grade utility.

Technical Structure: Bearish Control and the $2,750 Pivot

Ethereum's price action remains constrained by bearish control, but key technical levels suggest a potential inflection point. On the daily chart, ETH is trading below a descending trendline that has capped movement since November's peak according to Signal+. The $3,000 level is a critical psychological threshold; a breakdown below this would target $2,750, a historically significant support zone.

On the 4-hour timeframe, Ethereum is within a rising corrective channel nested in the larger downtrend. Price is currently capped by a local supply zone between $3,300 and $3,400 as reported by Signal+. If ETH fails to reclaim $3,300, the next target is $3,000, followed by $2,900. A breakdown from the rising channel would increase the likelihood of a deeper move toward $2,600–$2,620 as per CCI analysis. However, on-chain liquidation data reveals a critical asymmetry: short positions are densely clustered above $3,400, while long positions below $2,750 are sparse according to Signal+. This suggests that a retest of $2,750 would face minimal selling pressure, making it a high-probability area for buyers to step in.

Why $2,750 Is a Strategic Buy

A retest of $2,750 would serve as a critical test of Ethereum's resilience. Historically, this level has acted as a psychological barrier and a magnet for demand as indicated by Signal+. If buyers defend this zone, it could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing ETH back toward $3,140-a level that, if sustained, would signal a trend reversal as reported by Signal+.

Moreover, technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest weakening bearish momentum. While Ethereum remains below key moving averages (e.g., 100-hourly and 50-day EMA), the divergence between price and momentum metrics hints at a potential shift in sentiment according to The Tradable. A controlled pullback to $2,750 would allow the market to consolidate, aligning on-chain and technical conditions for a sustained recovery.

Risks and the Path Forward

The primary risk is a breakdown below $2,750, which could target $2,650 or lower. However, given the low exchange reserves and strong institutional positioning, a prolonged bearish move seems unlikely. Instead, a retest of $2,750 should be viewed as a setup for a higher-order bullish move, particularly if Ethereum can reestablish above $3,140 with conviction as per Signal+.

For investors, the $2,750 retest represents a strategic entry point. The combination of declining exchange reserves, institutional accumulation, and weakening bearish control creates a favorable risk-reward profile. While volatility remains a factor, the macro fundamentals and technical structure suggest that Ethereum is poised to reclaim its role as the leading infrastructure asset in the digital economy.