Ethereum News Today: Spring-Loaded Ethereum Breaks $3,000 as Bulls Target $3,400

Ethereum (ETH) surged above $3,000 in early November 2025, marking a pivotal moment for the second-largest cryptocurrency as technical indicators and on-chain data suggest potential for further gains. The price action has drawn intense scrutiny from traders and analysts, with the $3,000 level acting as a psychological and technical fulcrum. A sustained break above this threshold could trigger a rally toward $3,400, while repeated failures risk a deeper correction according to technical analysis.

Technical analysis highlights Ethereum's precarious position. The 4-hour chart shows the price pressing against a descending trendline that has constrained momentum all month, with the RSI forming small bullish divergences. On the daily chart, ETH remains within a long-term ascending trendline established since early 2025, though the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,514 remains a distant target. A strong close above $3,000 with robust volume is critical to flipping the narrative, as prior breakout attempts without liquidity have failed.

On-chain metrics offer mixed signals. Glassnode data reveals a recovery in active Ethereum addresses, a leading indicator that often precedes price action. The market capitalization has edged higher from a 44% drawdown to 37% relative to the all-time high, suggesting cooling selling pressure. Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score has plummeted to 0.29, historically signaling accumulation phases ahead of significant rallies.

Institutional interest is also shifting. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a $92.28 million inflow on November 24, ending a 10-day outflow streak, with BlackRock's ETHA fund accounting for $88.22 million of the inflow. This contrasts with broader crypto fund outflows of $1.94 billion in the preceding week, though Ethereum ETFs saw $589 million in outflows, later partially reversed.

Valuation models suggest substantial upside potential. Simon Kim's Hashed dashboard estimates Ethereum's fair value at $4,747, implying a 57% undervaluation. Metcalfe's Law-based models project a theoretical $9,583 fair value, while discounted cash flow analysis using staking yields targets $9,067 according to technical analysis. These figures align with historical "coiling" patterns, where prolonged consolidation precedes sharp rallies.

However, challenges persist. New Ethereum address growth remains stagnant, limiting fresh capital inflows essential for sustaining a breakout. Additionally, Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) continues aggressive ETH purchases despite a 50% paper loss, betting on staking yields and institutional adoption.

Looking ahead, Ethereum's trajectory hinges on reclaiming $3,000 with conviction. A successful breakout could target $3,120 and eventually $3,400, while a breakdown below $2,850 risks retesting $2,700. The Fusaka upgrade on December 3 and potential Fed rate cuts could provide catalysts. For now, the market remains in a stabilization phase, with bulls cautiously optimistic and bears bracing for further volatility.