Ethereum News Today: Long-Term Holders Fuel Ethereum's Downturn as $3K Looms

Ethereum (ETH) faces renewed bearish pressure as key technical and on-chain indicators suggest the price could fall below $3,000 in the near term. Recent data highlights weak user engagement, growing selling pressure from long-term holders, and macroeconomic headwinds, all of which raise concerns about the cryptocurrency's ability to sustain a recovery.

On-chain analysis reveals critical resistance clusters between $3,280 and $3,376, where 4.48 million addresses hold 5.77 million coins at unrealized losses Ethereum (ETH) Price Could Drop Below $3,000 Again^[1]. If ETH approaches this range, profit-taking by these addresses could reinforce downward momentum. Additionally, the price-Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence has plummeted, indicating declining network activity. Santiment data shows this metric has reached a multi-month low, signaling insufficient user participation to drive a bullish breakout Ethereum (ETH) Price Could Drop Below $3,000 Again^[1].

Technical indicators further reinforce the bearish outlook. The daily chart shows a head-and-shoulders pattern, with ETH breaking below the neckline at $3,219. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the neutral line, reflecting bearish momentum. If the trend continues, ETH could drop to $2,914 in the short term. A potential rebound would require a sustained break above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $3,371, which could trigger a rally toward $4,109 Ethereum (ETH) Price Could Drop Below $3,000 Again^[1].

Long-term holders (LTHs) are another critical factor. The MVRV Long/Short Difference has reached a yearly high, indicating LTHs are accumulating profits. Historically, when LTH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) crosses the 0.60 threshold, Ethereum has experienced price reversals. With NUPL currently at an eight-month high, the risk of LTHs selling their positions to lock in gains is elevated, potentially exacerbating the downtrend Will Ethereum Drop Below $3,000 as Holders Create a Market Top?^[2].

Macroeconomic conditions are compounding the pressure. Strong U.S. labor market data, including a higher-than-expected 8.098 million job openings in December, has fueled fears of prolonged inflation and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts. This has pushed U.S. 10-year bond yields to 4.7%, their highest since April 2024. Higher yields typically weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as investors prioritize yield-bearing instruments over speculative plays Ethereum Price Crashes 8% - Drop Below $3,000 Imminent?^[3].

Despite these challenges, Ethereum's price action suggests a potential short-term rebound. The 4-hour RSI has entered oversold territory at 22, and funding rates are showing early signs of recovery, indicating some traders are opening long positions Ethereum Price Analysis: The Truth Behind Why ETH Dumped Below $3,000^[4]. However, bearish risks persist if ETH fails to hold above $3,000. A breakdown below this level could test deeper support at $2,800 or $2,500, as seen in prior corrections ETH Defends Key Fibonacci Zone — Reversal on the …^[5].

A bullish reversal would require ETH to establish a higher low above $3,400 and break through key resistance at $3,500. The MACD and RSI currently suggest positive momentum above this level, with the 100-hour Simple Moving Average providing additional support Ethereum Price Action: Bulls Defend Critical …^[6]. If ETH can reclaim $3,400, it may consolidate between $3,400 and $3,500 before attempting a broader rally.

In summary, Ethereum's near-term outlook remains precarious. Without a sustained recovery above $3,371 and increased user engagement, the price could retest $3,000. Conversely, a successful breakout and sustained buying pressure could reignite bullish momentum toward $4,100. Traders and investors are advised to monitor key technical levels and on-chain metrics for further signals.