Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Classic's Scarcity Play: Deflationary Model Fuels Bullish Surge

Ethereum Classic (ETC) has broken out of a falling wedge pattern, signaling potential bullish momentum as the asset trades above $20. This technical development, supported by rising on-chain and derivatives activity, has reignited investor interest in the altcoin. According to Santiment data, ETC's ecosystem trading volume surged from $78.39 million to $228.72 million between mid-September and late October, marking the highest level since mid-September [1]. CoinGlass data further indicates that the futures Open Interest (OI) for ETC has risen to $70.22 million, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.04, the highest in over a month, reflecting strong bullish sentiment [1].

The breakout from the falling wedge pattern, a key technical chart formation, is critical for ETC's near-term trajectory. The pattern, defined by converging trendlines connecting multiple highs and lows since early August, was breached on October 10 as ETC closed above $20. A successful confirmation above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $20.03 could extend gains to $21.38 and potentially the September 13 high of $22.52 [1]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 54, surpassing the neutral 50 level, while the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, reinforcing the optimistic outlook [1].

Fundamental factors also contribute to the bullish narrative. The Olympia Upgrade, implemented in May 2025, introduced EIP-1559-style transaction fee burning, creating a deflationary mechanism for ETC. This structural change has attracted investors seeking assets with "sound money" properties, aligning ETC more closely with Bitcoin's scarcity model [5]. The upgrade's impact on supply dynamics has been accompanied by a surge in hashrate, which more than doubled in 2025, peaking at over 300 terahashes [6].

Derivatives data underscores growing speculative activity. ETC's futures OI has increased steadily since early October, reaching $70.22 million as of October 10. This rise suggests new capital is entering the market, with traders betting on further price appreciation. The positive funding rate in ETC futures-turning bullish after a prolonged negative phase-also signals institutional and retail confidence in the asset's upward trajectory [5].

However, risks remain. If ETC fails to maintain its position above the falling wedge's upper trendline, it could retreat toward the September 25 low of $17.56. The MACD's bullish crossover and RSI's momentum above 50 provide near-term support, but a breakdown would test the validity of the breakout. Analysts at FXStreet caution that volume must remain robust to confirm the pattern's integrity, as a spike in volume on the breakout day is a key verification metric [1].

Longer-term forecasts, while speculative, suggest continued optimism. CoinCodex projects ETC to reach $22.66 by October 15, 2025, with a 13.13% increase from current levels, and anticipates an average annualized price of $27.14 in 2025. By 2030, the platform forecasts a potential high of $244.66 [6]. These projections, however, rely on broader market conditions and regulatory developments, such as the U.S. SEC's approval of crypto ETFs, which have historically spurred altcoin demand [6].

The current market environment, characterized by a total crypto market cap exceeding $4 trillion, has amplified ETC's appeal. Recent U.S. legislative actions-including the Clarity Act, GENIUS Act, and Anti-CBDC Act-have further bolstered altcoin adoption, with Ethereum ETFs outpacing Bitcoin counterparts in net inflows [5]. This regulatory tailwind, combined with ETC's deflationary model, positions it as a potential beneficiary of the ongoing crypto bull cycle.

[1] FXStreet - Ethereum Classic Price Forecast: ETC breaks out of falling wedge pattern, eyes bullish continuation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-classic-price-forecast-etc-breaks-out-of-falling-wedge-pattern-eyes-bullish-continuation-202510100744)

[5] Coinedition - Top Reasons Why Ethereum Classic (ETC) Price is Surging Today? (https://coinedition.com/top-reasons-why-ethereum-classic-etc-price-surging-today/)

[6] Cryptopolitan - Ethereum Classic Price Prediction 2025-2031 (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/ethereum-classic-price-prediction/)