Ethereum News Today: Ethereum's $3,500 Tug-of-War: Whales and Institutions Dictate Price's Next Move

Ethereum's price trajectory has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts as the cryptocurrency hovers near critical support and resistance levels. Following a brief dip below $3,100 on November 16, 2025, ETH rebounded, illustrating resilience amid heightened volatility. The price action reflects a tug-of-war between long-term holders re-entering the market and influential figures, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, trimming exposure. Hayes liquidated approximately $4.1 million in crypto assets, including 780 ETH and significant positions in tokens like ENA and ETHFI, sending assets to institutional desks like Flowdesk and Cumberland. This selling pressure coincided with broader market weakness, as ETH traded at $3,066 at 9:36 PM UTC, down 3.4% over 24 hours.

The $3,500 level has emerged as a pivotal threshold. Traders are closely monitoring this level, which previously acted as support but now serves as resistance. A break above $3,500 could open the door to $3,800, while a rejection may trigger a decline toward $3,000. Analysts highlight the significance of the $3,300 zone, where high-leverage short positions are concentrated. A rapid move into this range could force short-covering and spark a short squeeze, potentially pushing prices higher. Meanwhile, Ethereum's on-chain data reveals a long-short ratio exceeding 3.0, signaling strong trader engagement, though rising open interest also points to potential short-term volatility.

Whale activity has further complicated the outlook. Two decade-old Ethereum wallets reawakened, moving 1,200 ETH worth $3.7 million, while institutional investors like TRON's Justin Sun and Fundstrat's Tom Lee added to their ETH holdings. These moves contrast with ETF outflows exceeding $507 million in early November, raising concerns about liquidity pressures. The market remains range-bound between $3,500 resistance and $3,070 support, with daily trading volume at $18.1 billion.

Technical analysts caution that a breakdown below $3,000 could expose Ethereum to a test of the $2,845–$2,900 zone, while a sustained move above $3,650 could flip the trend bullish, targeting $4,000 and beyond. The upcoming Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December 3, adds another layer of uncertainty. This upgrade introduces scalability enhancements, like PeerDAS data availability and Verkle trees, potentially boosting Ethereum's transaction throughput and reinforcing its dominance in Web3.

The market's forward outlook hinges on several factors. A bullish scenario requires ETH to reclaim $3,572 and hold above $3,600, with the Fusaka upgrade acting as a catalyst. Conversely, leverage unwinding-exacerbated by a recent $1.9 billion spike in open interest-poses a near-term risk of a short-term reversal. Institutional re-entry, indicated by rising spot order sizes, could stabilize the market, but ETF outflows and fragmented demand remain headwinds.