Ethereum News Today: Crypto's Tenuous Recovery: ETF Hopes vs. Technical and Macro Risks

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP prices have staged a mild recovery following a sharp correction, with traders and analysts monitoring key technical levels and macroeconomic factors. BTC currently hovers around $115,500, having rebounded from a $102,000 low after a $16 billion liquidation event earlier in the week Coindesk^[1]. Ethereum (ETH) trades above $4,100, while XRP is near $2.57, showing signs of stabilization amid improved market sentiment FXStreet^[2]. Analysts suggest the recovery could be gradual, with strategic buying of liquidation orders and liquidity challenges potentially prolonging the bottoming process Coindesk^[1].

Bitcoin: Testing Key Levels

Bitcoin faced rejection after hitting an all-time high of $126,199 on October 6, followed by a 11% decline to $102,000. The price has since stabilized near $115,500, with bulls eyeing a retest of the $120,000 psychological level FXStreet^[2]. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the RSI (Relative Strength Index) near 48 suggests fading bearish momentum, but the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains bearish FXStreet^[2]. A breakdown below $107,245 could extend the decline further, while a sustained recovery above $115,500 may signal renewed institutional buying Coindesk^[1]. Analysts like Zaheer Ebtikar of Split Capital note that market makers are likely to absorb sell orders during the stabilization phase, a process that could span several days Coindesk^[1].

Ethereum: Consolidation and Resistance

Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded to $4,160 after a 17.66% drop to $3,825. Traders are watching the $4,232 resistance level, with a successful close above this threshold potentially driving the price toward $4,488 FXStreet^[2]. The RSI is also showing fading bearish momentum, but the MACD remains bearish, indicating caution FXStreet^[2]. If ETH fails to hold above $4,232, it could face a correction toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,593 FXStreet^[2]. Analysts highlight the importance of the $4,000 support zone, noting that a break below this level could trigger a deeper decline .

XRP: ETF Catalyst and Technical Patterns

Ripple (XRP) has seen a 6.78% recovery to $2.57 after hitting a low of $1.25, but faces a critical resistance at $2.72. The price is currently consolidating within a falling wedge pattern, with a breakout above $2.72 potentially targeting $3.65 FXStreet^[2]. Analysts emphasize the significance of upcoming SEC decisions on eight XRP ETF applications, with approvals expected to unlock institutional inflows and push the price toward $5 or higher TheCryptoBasic^[5]. Technical indicators show a neutral RSI and bearish MACD, but the 200-day EMA at $1.95 acts as a key support Coinedition^[7]. A failure to hold above $2.35 could reignite bearish momentum FXStreet^[2].

Market Context and Macro Risks

The recent correction was exacerbated by a $16 billion liquidation event, with market makers pausing to address price discrepancies between spot and futures markets. This phase, according to Ebtikar, typically involves a multi-step bottoming process, including data feed stabilization and dealer unwinding of long positions Coindesk^[1]. Additionally, U.S.-China trade tensions remain a wildcard, with analysts warning that deteriorating relations could disrupt recovery efforts Coindesk^[1]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance has lost key support, and USDT dominance is waning, signaling capital rotation into altcoins .

Analyst Outlook and ETF Implications

Kevin Cage of TheCryptoBasic predicts XRP could reach $4.30 in 2025 if BTC hits $150,000 and ETH reaches $5,300 . Similarly, IntoTheBlock's Juan Pellicer notes that XRP's RLUSD stablecoin and regulatory clarity could drive sustained appreciation, with institutions playing a key role in maintaining demand above $2.00 . For Ethereum, the launch of spot ETFs and EIP-4844 upgrades are seen as catalysts for a potential $3,000–$3,500 rally . Bitcoin's institutional adoption and regulatory tailwinds, including a pro-crypto administration, are expected to support its $120,000 target .