Ethereum/Mexican Peso Market Overview

• ETHMXN traded lower on the 15-min chart, forming a bearish continuation pattern amid a key support test.
• Momentum shifted bearish mid-day as RSI dipped into oversold territory, indicating potential near-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands show tightened volatility pre-15:30 ET before a sharp breakout above the upper band.
• Volume remains subdued, though a spike in notional turnover at 15:30 ET confirmed the recent upward thrust.
• Fibonacci levels indicate 84637 MXN as immediate resistance with 85239 MXN as the next critical price target.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 83,642 MXN on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 84,637 MXN by the same time on 2025-10-06. The pair touched a high of 86,207 MXN and a low of 82,792 MXN during the 24-hour period. Total volume was minimal at 1.4985 ETH, with notional turnover standing at approximately 125.34 million MXN.

The 15-minute chart formed a series of bearish patterns, including a long-bodied bearish candle at the beginning and a tight-range consolidation phase mid-day before a sharp bullish thrust post 15:30 ET. Key support appeared to hold at 83,287 MXN and 83,166 MXN, while resistance levels of 83,524 MXN and 83,663 MXN were tested twice. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 15:30 ET after prolonged consolidation, suggesting a shift in sentiment.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart saw the price close above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs during the final 2.5 hours of the day. The daily chart remains below both 50-period and 200-period SMAs, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. However, the recent upward move suggests a potential short-term reversal. MACD turned positive post-15:30 ET, confirming the bullish thrust, while RSI dipped into oversold territory early before closing back into neutral-to-bullish territory.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction between 19:00 and 15:30 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke above the upper band. This breakout was confirmed by a surge in notional turnover. Price action within the bands indicated a strong consolidation phase before the breakout. Volatility, as measured by the band width, was relatively low for most of the session but spiked at the end. Volume remained subdued except for the final 15-minute candle, where it saw a noticeable jump in notional turnover, aligning with the price breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements and Price Targets

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart show that the 61.8% level (84,210 MXN) was quickly broken, with 84,637 MXN marking the 78.6% retracement. The next Fibonacci extension at 85,239 MXN could act as a psychological barrier, while 86,207 MXN may serve as a near-term resistance level if the bullish momentum continues. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent decline is at 83,166 MXN, a key level that held firm during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy for backtesting involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 15-minute 20-period SMA and RSI crosses above 40 after being in oversold territory. Stops are placed at the most recent swing low, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The 15:30 ET candle provided a strong confirmation of this setup, with RSI re-entering neutral-to-bullish and a sharp close above the 20-period SMA. This suggests a high-probability trade opportunity in the next 24 hours, provided liquidity remains stable.