Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) Market Overview

• ETHMXN experienced a bearish 24-hour session, closing near session lows at 84871 MXN.
• Momentum indicators signal oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Price action revealed consolidation at key Fibonacci levels and a potential breakdown in structure.
• Volume remained subdued, with minimal notional turnover despite sharp price declines.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with price testing both Bollinger Band extremes.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-13, Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 86877 MXN. The 24-hour session saw a high of 86877 MXN and a low of 84871 MXN, closing at 84871 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14. Total volume traded across the 96 fifteen-minute intervals amounted to 1.2591 ETH, with a notional turnover of 97.962 ETH·MXN.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish flag pattern following a sharp descent from 86877 to 85003 MXN. A key support level emerged near 85003 MXN, where price briefly consolidated before breaking down further to 84871 MXN. A doji at 84871 MXN suggests waning bearish momentum, but the absence of bullish confirmation raises the possibility of further downside.

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 86877 to 85003 MXN aligns closely with the current low at 84871 MXN, suggesting potential for a countertrend rally. However, the lack of bullish volume at this level indicates a weak base.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs show a bearish crossover, reinforcing the short-term downward bias. The 50-period EMA sits near 85600 MXN, acting as a dynamic resistance.

While daily EMAs (50, 100, and 200) are not shown in this data, the 15-minute chart suggests a continuation of the bearish trend in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover. MACD histograms showed a narrowing range in the negative territory, signaling waning bearish momentum.

The RSI dropped below 30 in the last few hours, entering oversold territory. This could indicate a potential reversal or a continuation of the downtrend, depending on volume and follow-through action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased during the session, pushing price to the lower Bollinger Band at 84871 MXN. The 20-period Bollinger Band width expanded, reflecting heightened market anxiety.

Price found support at the lower band and bounced slightly, but without strong follow-through, it remains to be seen whether this support level will hold.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was minimal throughout the session, with only a few spikes—most notably at 04:30 and 15:15 ET. Notional turnover was also low, indicating a lack of conviction in both buying and selling.

The divergence between price action and volume suggests a potential exhaustion of the bearish move, although confirmation is still pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement level at 84871 MXN was briefly tested and held. This level could serve as a potential entry point for countertrend traders, but without strong volume, it may not hold.

The 50% retracement level is at 85939 MXN, which appears to be a strong psychological level and may act as near-term resistance if a bullish reversal occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish RSI divergence below 30, with a stop-loss just below the most recent support level. Alternatively, a short position could be initiated on a bearish engulfing pattern with a stop above the 50-period EMA. Given the low volume and high volatility, a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 is recommended to ensure a favorable expectancy ratio in live trading.