Ethereum Market Overview for 2025-09-02

• Ethereum’s 24-hour ETHUSD price declined from $4372 to $4289.2, with a 2.9% drop.
• Volatility surged with a 15-minute range of $196.53 and notable volume on the decline.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $4372–4350, suggesting short-term bearish momentum.
• RSI dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, while MACD showed bearish crossover.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion signals a potential breakout phase.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) opened at $4372.0 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $4289.2 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of $4409.8 and a low of $4280.0 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 92.2581 ETH, while notional turnover was approximately $385,636.77. A strong bearish bias emerged amid key breakdowns below $4347.84 and $4327.01.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern at $4372–4350 formed a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling a short-term reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment. The price then consolidated briefly before a sharp drop below $4347.84, a prior intraday support. A doji formed at $4363.63, suggesting indecision before the downward leg. Subsequent price action broke through multiple support levels, including $4327.01 and $4316.03, with a final breakdown to $4289.2. This indicates increasing bearish conviction and a potential test of the next support at $4250–4200. Resistance appears to be redefining at $4340–4360, with a possible retest of $4380 in a rebound scenario.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, forming a death cross, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is well above the 200-period line, but the price remains below both, indicating a broader bearish trend. This suggests that short-term traders are bearish, while the medium-term trend appears to be in consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart. This was accompanied by a decline in histogram bars, signaling waning bullish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory at 29.5 during the decline, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. However, divergence between price and RSI remains limited, so a bearish continuation remains more probable unless there is a strong bullish reversal at the $4320–4330 level.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the early morning hours before expanding during the bearish leg, signaling a period of low volatility followed by breakout potential. The price closed at $4289.2, which is currently near the lower band, suggesting that further bearish momentum could drive prices toward the 1.618 Fibonacci level. A break below the lower band may indicate a deepening of the bearish trend and test of the 2.618 extension.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown below $4347.84, with over 20.7 ETH traded in that 15-minute window. Turnover also surged during the same period, confirming the bearish move. The volume during the final breakdown to $4289.2 was relatively muted, indicating possible exhaustion. This could signal a potential pause or consolidation phase in the short term, though continued bearish pressure may emerge if key supports fail.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $4289.2 to $4409.8, the 38.2% level is at $4340.67 and the 61.8% level is at $4370.31. The price appears to be approaching the 38.2% retracement level from its recent low. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high to low is at $4355.17, which could serve as a potential short-term support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI reading, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short position on ETHUSD with a stop above $4360 and a target at $4250. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 20-period moving average could serve as dynamic stops or profit-taking levels. This approach would aim to capitalize on the bearish momentum observed in the intraday structure while managing risk with defined targets and stops.