El régimen de acumulación a largo plazo de Ethereum: Un punto estructural en medio de la volatilidad a corto plazo

Ethereum's price action in late 2025 has painted a complex narrative of resilience and vulnerability. While the asset remains trapped in a consolidation phase near $3,000, on-chain data and technical indicators suggest a deeper structural story: a long-term accumulation regime is taking root, anchoring ETH's price to critical cost basis levels despite macroeconomic headwinds. This analysis unpacks the interplay between short-term volatility and long-term conviction, offering a framework for investors to navigate Ethereum's pivotal inflection point.

The Accumulation Regime: A Structural Defense Mechanism

Ethereum's on-chain dynamics reveal a stark shift in holder behavior. Long-term holders (LTHs) have drastically reduced selling pressure, with ETH selling dropping from 1.1 million ETH in mid-November to just 54,427 ETH by December 23. Simultaneously, LTHs added 17 million ETH to accumulation wallets in 2025-a figure that underscores sustained buying interest even amid a bearish macroeconomic environment. This duality-reduced selling and increased accumulation-creates a structural floor, as LTHs act as a counterweight to short-term speculative flows.

The most critical cost basis cluster for Ethereum lies between $3,150 and $3,173, where 2.94 million ETH were accumulated. This zone represents a "supply wall" that must be cleared for bullish momentum to resume. Notably, ETH is currently trading near $3,150, just 8% above the accumulation addresses' realized price of $2,895. Historically, this level has attracted value-driven buyers during market weakness, suggesting a potential inflection point for institutional or strategic capital to re-enter.

Technical Constraints and Breakout Potential

From a technical perspective, Ethereum is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline near $3,400. A decisive close above this level would target $4,400, unlocking a new phase of bullish momentum. However, the path to this breakout is fraught with resistance. Key levels to watch include $3,000 (a psychological and historical barrier), $3,200 (short-term support), and $3,400 (the pattern's neckline). On the downside, the $2,800–$2,850 zone is a critical line in the sand; a break below $2,800 could trigger a cascade of liquidation selling.

Price action remains constrained by moving averages. ETH is trading below both the 50-period ($2,947.08) and 200-period ($3,012.68) SMAs, a bearish signal that reflects lingering bearish sentiment. Yet the 200-day SMA currently sits at $3,386.06, and ETH's ability to hold above $3,000 suggests some resilience. A sustained move above $3,600 would be required to confirm a trend reversal, but the liquidity sweep above $3,250 has already weakened selling pressure.

Contradictory Signals: Accumulation vs. Short-Term Selling

While accumulation addresses posted record inflows in December (3.62 million ETH), exchange reserves also saw a notable increase, indicating short-term selling pressure. This duality highlights Ethereum's precarious balance: long-term holders are fortifying their positions, but near-term volatility remains a risk. Technical indicators reinforce this tension. The RSI (37.70) and Williams %R (-58.16) suggest neutrality, while 81% of indicators lean bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator's overbought territory, however, hints at potential for a rebound.

Historical seasonality offers a counterpoint to the bearish narrative. Red fourth quarters are often followed by strong first and second quarters, suggesting Ethereum's consolidation could set the stage for a continuation phase in early 2026. This aligns with the structural strength of accumulation addresses, which have historically acted as a buffer during market cycles.

Conclusion: Conviction in the Cost Basis

Ethereum's long-term accumulation regime is a structural anchor, but its effectiveness hinges on clearing critical support and resistance levels. The $3,150–$3,173 cost basis cluster represents a make-or-break threshold: a breakout above this zone could validate the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and trigger a retest of $3,800–$4,000. Conversely, a breakdown below $2,800 would exacerbate bearish sentiment, testing the $2,700 level.

For investors, the key takeaway is to balance short-term volatility with long-term conviction. While Ethereum remains in a consolidation phase, the accumulation trends and on-chain data suggest a resilient foundation. As one report notes, "structural strength often emerges during drawdowns", and Ethereum's 2025 accumulation patterns point to a durable base for future upside. The coming weeks will test this thesis, but the interplay between LTH behavior and technical levels offers a compelling case for cautious optimism.