Ethereum Faces 51% Odds of Dropping to $2,000 by Year-End

Ethereum, one of the few crypto assets currently trading in the green, has been hovering around the $2,500 mark for most of June. This has led to speculation about its future direction, with prediction markets showing a nearly 50-50 split on whether Ethereum will reach $3,000 or drop to $2,000 by the end of the year. On Myriad, a prediction market, traders have set the odds for ETH dropping to $2,000 before the end of the year to roughly 51%, while the odds of Ethereum reaching $3,000 stand at 49%. This reflects the genuine uncertainty gripping the market, with neither bulls nor bears having a convincing edge.

Despite recent network upgrades and growing institutional interest, the market remains unconvinced about directional momentum for ETH. Ethereum is the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization, valued at $293 billion, and is the only crypto asset besides Bitcoin that currently has spot ETFs trading in U.S. markets. The network has seen significant improvements recently, with the Pectra upgrade going live last month and increasing validator caps and expanded network data capacity. However, profit-taking has been triggered just below the significant psychological level of $3,000.

From a pure price movement perspective, the bearish scenario appears just a tiny bit more probable in the immediate term. To reach $3,000, Ethereum needs to gain $552 (approximately 23%) from current levels. Based on the blue support trendline shown in the chart, this would require nearly 77 days of sustained bullish momentum. Conversely, reaching $2,000 requires only a $442 drop (about 18%). Given the bearish channel formation over the past three weeks, this downside target could materialize within a month if selling pressure intensifies. The $2,800 mark has proven to be a formidable resistance level since May, which is not enough to meet the Myriad market resolution criteria. It’s gotta hit $3,000, which may not be easy. While Ethereum briefly traded above $3,000 in early 2025, it actually went below $2,000 from March 10 until the spike on May 10, showing the market's willingness to test lower levels.

The technical picture leans bearish in the near term. The Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 22, below the crucial 25 threshold that confirms trend strength. This reading suggests Ethereum lacks a strong directional trend—neither bulls nor bears have taken firm control, and the current longer bullish trend is losing strength. For traders, an ADX below 25 typically means choppy, range-bound action rather than trending moves. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, reads 49.7, placing it squarely in neutral territory. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains to recent losses. Readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions where pullbacks often occur, while readings below 30 indicate oversold levels that may precede bounces. Ethereum's near-50 reading shows balanced momentum without extremes and pretty much mimics the state of the Myriad market—undecided.

Looking at the Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, the 50-week EMA sits above the 200-week EMA—traditionally a bullish configuration called a "golden cross." However, the narrowing gap between these averages is concerning. When shorter-term averages converge toward longer-term ones, it often signals weakening bullish momentum. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows "OFF" status, indicating volatility has already been released. But the indicator, alongside the ADX, shows there is still a bullish trend in play, weak or strong. While prediction markets show an even split between moon and doom scenarios, the technical picture suggests caution. The weak ADX reading, neutral RSI, and previous struggles with the $2,800 resistance level paint a picture of consolidation rather than trending action. In pure technical terms, the path to $2,000 appears easier than reaching $3,000.

However, crypto markets rarely follow textbook patterns. Institutional adoption, network upgrades, and macroeconomic shifts could quickly invalidate any technical setup. For now, traders should watch the $2,200 support and $2,800 resistance as key battlegrounds that will likely determine Ethereum's next major move.