Los niveles de precios críticos de Ethereum y los riesgos de cascada de liquidez: puntos de entrada y salida estratégicos en 2025

In 2025, Ethereum (ETH) emerged as a focal point of volatility and leverage-driven trading, with liquidation pressure data revealing critical price levels that shaped market dynamics. As derivatives trading volumes surged, the interplay between leverage, liquidity, and macroeconomic shocks created a volatile environment where strategic entry and exit decisions became paramount. This analysis explores how traders leveraged liquidation pressure data at key ETH price levels-$2,900 and $3,100-to navigate liquidity cascade risks and optimize trading outcomes.

Critical Price Levels and Liquidation Risks

Ethereum's price action in 2025 was defined by two pivotal thresholds: $2,900 and $3,100. According to Coinglass data, a drop below $2,900 could trigger approximately $630 million in long liquidations, while a breakout above $3,100 might result in $918 million in short liquidations. These levels acted as liquidity clusters, where cascading orders amplified price movements. For instance, during October 2025, when geopolitical tensions-such as the Trump administration's 100% tariff announcement on Chinese imports-triggered a market crash, Ethereum plummeted below $4,000, wiping out $19 billion in leveraged positions. This event underscored the fragility of leveraged longs, with 96% of Bybit's liquidations during the crash being long positions.

The $2,900 level, in particular, became a psychological support. If breached, it risked triggering a self-reinforcing sell-off as leveraged longs were liquidated, further depressing prices. Conversely, a sustained close above $3,100 could destabilize short positions, creating upward momentum. These dynamics were evident in December 2025, when Ethereum consolidated near $2,900–$2,950, with sellers capping rebounds and buyers failing to establish a bullish trend.

Case Study: The October 2025 Crash and Market Resilience

The October 2025 crash, driven by the Trump tariff announcement, exemplified the risks of concentrated leverage. Over $19 billion in liquidations occurred across platforms like Bybit and BitMEX, with Ethereum dropping below $4,000 and Bitcoin falling to $107,000. BitMEX, however, demonstrated resilience due to its Fair Price Marking model and Multi-Asset Margining system, which minimized localized liquidity crises. This contrast highlighted the importance of exchange design in mitigating cascading liquidations.

For Ethereum traders, the crash reinforced the need for risk management. For example, a trader who had long positions at $2,900–$3,100 faced a 2.18% price drop during the crash, testing support levels and triggering $674 million in long liquidations. Conversely, those who shorted Ethereum above $3,100 benefited from $905 million in short liquidations as prices collapsed. These real-world scenarios illustrate how liquidation clusters can be both a threat and an opportunity.

Strategic Entry and Exit Points

Traders in 2025 employed liquidation pressure data to time entries and exits. For instance, a short strategy near $2,900 aimed to target $2,815–$2,748 if the price broke support capitalizing on the $395 million–$850 million in potential long liquidations. Conversely, a long strategy on a confirmed rebound above $3,100 targeted $3,240 and $3,370, leveraging the $497 million in short liquidation risks.

Technical indicators further refined these strategies. Ethereum's failure to reclaim its 50-day EMA near $3,160 signaled a bearish bias, while rising exchange reserves on Binance-8.5 million ETH inflows in December-suggested heightened liquidity and potential volatility. On-chain data also revealed ETF outflows, reinforcing the downward bias.

Risk Management and Market Infrastructure

The October 2025 crash underscored the importance of risk mitigation. Traders were advised to limit leverage, use stop-loss orders, and diversify portfolios. For example, a trader who lost $36.4 million in a single liquidation event during September 2025 highlighted the perils of overexposure. Meanwhile, DeFi platforms like Aave and Kamino demonstrated resilience by handling large liquidation volumes without bad debt, showcasing architectural advantages over centralized exchanges.

Conclusion

Ethereum's 2025 price action revealed the dual-edged nature of liquidation pressure. While critical levels like $2,900 and $3,100 posed significant risks, they also offered strategic opportunities for traders who leveraged data-driven insights. As derivatives markets matured, the interplay between leverage, liquidity, and macroeconomic factors will remain central to ETH trading. For investors, the lessons of 2025-particularly the importance of risk management and exchange infrastructure-will shape future strategies in an increasingly volatile landscape.