Ethereum Classic/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price surged above $15.40 amid rising momentum and strong volume in afternoon ET.
• MACD and RSI suggest overbought conditions near resistance, hinting at near-term consolidation.
• Volatility expanded as price traded within upper Bollinger Band, signaling bullish energy.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $15.33 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $15.80 and a low of $15.17 before closing at $15.70 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 216,740.5, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,413,499.73.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a bullish bias, with the price breaking above a key resistance level near $15.50 and consolidating within the $15.60–$15.80 range. A bullish engulfing pattern formed in the early ET hours, signaling a reversal from bearish momentum. A doji emerged near $15.72, indicating indecision but without breaking the upward trend. Support levels to watch include $15.60 and $15.50, while resistance is likely to test at $15.80 and potentially $15.90.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is currently above the 50-period line, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period line has crossed above the 200-period line, reinforcing a broader bullish bias. The price has remained well above these averages, indicating strength in the current trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown a positive divergence in the last 15 minutes of trading, with the histogram expanding to the upside. This suggests increasing bullish momentum. RSI stands at approximately 68, indicating the pair is in overbought territory, which may lead to a pullback or consolidation. However, the strong volume and rising price suggest buyers are willing to defend the current level.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the afternoon hours, pushing the price toward the upper Bollinger Band. This is typically a sign of bullish strength and can precede a breakout or continued range-bound trading. The bands are wide, indicating the market is in a high-volatility phase, and the price could retrace toward the mid-band in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the midday ET hours, particularly in the 15-minute candles between 03:30 and 04:00 ET. The increase in volume coincided with a sharp upward move toward $15.60 and $15.62, confirming the bullish breakout. A divergence appears in the final hours of trading, where price continued to rise while volume dipped, signaling cautious optimism.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $15.17 to $15.80, the 61.8% level is at $15.58, which has already been tested and held. The next key level is at 78.6%, or approximately $15.76, which may serve as a new area of support or resistance. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracements align with current price levels, suggesting a strong continuation of the trend is possible.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on MACD bottom divergence signals on ETCUSDT since 1 Jan 2022, using a 3-day holding period for each trade. This aligns with the current technical picture, where MACD divergence has reinforced bullish momentum. The strategy aims to exploit market reversals where bearish momentum appears to stall, and the price resumes an upward trend. As seen today, the MACD confirmed a bottom divergence in the early morning hours, contributing to the breakout above $15.50. This strategy highlights the importance of divergence confirmation and time constraints in managing risk.