Ethereum Classic/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from $15.03 to $14.63 amid increased bearish momentum.
• High volatility and key support at $14.60–$14.63 show accumulation signs.
• Volume spiked in mid-day sell-offs but waned by late evening, suggesting exhaustion.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $15.03 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET and closed at $14.63 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. The pair traded between $14.56 and $15.35 during the 24-hour window. Total volume reached 655,279.3 USDT, with a notional turnover of $9,708,434. The move reflects a bearish bias reinforced by key technical indicators and Fibonacci levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of a short-term rally near $15.35. A significant pullback followed, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (~$14.63) acting as a temporary floor. A bullish reversal may form if buyers defend this level. A doji at $14.70 suggests indecision, while the 38.2% level (~$14.97) has shown repeated resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the price, showing bearish alignment. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages appear to be converging lower, reinforcing a medium-term downtrend. Price may test the 100-day MA (~$14.50) as a critical support zone in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line near $15.20, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory (~30), but with a negative divergence—RSI failing to rebound despite a bounce in price—this may suggest a deepening bearish phase. A close above $15.00 could trigger a short-term bounce, but the RSI remains weak.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands for several hours, indicating high volatility and a potential consolidation phase. A break above the middle band could signal a short-term reversal, but given the weak momentum, a continuation lower toward the lower band (~$14.45) appears more probable.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the mid-day sell-off, especially in the $14.85–$14.95 range, with a notional turnover of ~$1.1 million. However, volume significantly tailed off during the late afternoon, suggesting exhausted bearish pressure. Price and volume aligned during the selloff, but divergence appears in the final hours, hinting at potential support forming near $14.60.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the $14.70–$15.20 swing shows 61.8% at $14.63 as a key support. On the daily chart, the broader $14.50–$15.35 swing has $14.63 as the 61.8% level, which could act as a pivot. A bounce from this area would be a bullish signal, but a break below could target the next 78.6% level near $14.35.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest employed a 3-day holding period with no stop-loss or take-profit parameters, resulting in an annualized return of -6.9% since 2022. This suggests the strategy may struggle in volatile or sideways markets like the one observed in this 24-hour period. The bearish bias seen in the RSI and MACD, combined with high drawdown risks, aligns with the strategy’s poor historical performance. Without risk controls, any short-term reversal attempt could be quickly negated by larger downturns.