Ethereum Classic/Tether Market Overview

• Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) fell below 15.90, with a bearish reversal likely after a sharp selloff near 16.60.
• RSI hit oversold levels, but bulls failed to reclaim key resistance above 16.20.
• Volatility surged during a 15-minute 16.39–15.91 range, with volume spiking at the top of the decline.
• Bollinger Bands widened, showing price consolidation near the 20-period SMA at 15.76.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the daily close, aligning with a breakdown from the 16.35–15.97 swing high.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $16.14 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $15.72 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $16.60 and a low of $15.40. Total volume reached 188,365.11, and turnover hit $3,094,549.98. The past 24 hours were marked by sharp bearish momentum, a volatile breakdown, and a bearish engulfing pattern at the close.

The 15-minute chart shows a decisive move lower from 16.60, with price falling to 15.91 within a single 45-minute window. The 20-period SMA at 15.76 and 50-period SMA at 15.86 are now acting as immediate resistance, while 15.70 and 15.40 provide key support. A bearish engulfing pattern confirmed on the daily timeframe, with price closing below the prior day’s low of 16.10.

MACD crossed below zero on the daily timeframe, confirming bearish momentum. RSI fell below 30, suggesting oversold conditions, but buyers have yet to respond decisively. Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion during the breakdown, with price currently consolidating near the lower band. Fibonacci retracements on the 16.60–15.91 swing suggest a potential target of 15.76 at 61.8%.

Traders should watch for a retest of 15.76–15.86 as critical levels in the next 24 hours. A close above 15.86 could trigger a short-term rebound, but without a clear reversal pattern or volume confirmation, a continuation toward 15.40 remains a risk.

Backtest Hypothesis
The strategy tested relied on a combination of a daily bearish engulfing candle and RSI(14) < 30 as entry signals for short selling. Over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-30, no trades were triggered, as the two conditions never aligned. This highlights the rarity of such a convergence in ETC/USDT, suggesting the criteria may be too strict for frequent trade generation. For practical use, relaxing RSI to below 40 or using alternative bearish patterns (e.g., shooting star, dark cloud cover) might improve trade frequency. Additionally, introducing a time-based exit or profit-taking rule could provide clearer trade signals. The lack of active stop-loss use in this test did not impact results due to no trades being opened.