Ethereum's On-Chain Sentiment and Structural Bull Case: 60% of Traders Go Long as Network Effects Reaccelerate

Ethereum's structural bull case has always hinged on two pillars: on-chain behavioral economics and network effect reacceleration. While macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory uncertainty have persisted in 2025, granular on-chain data suggests a quiet but powerful shift. A growing portion of traders—now estimated at 60% long—are betting on Ethereum's reemerging dominance, driven by capital reallocation and a resurgence in decentralized application (dApp) activity. This analysis unpacks the metrics behind this optimism and why Ethereum's network effects are poised to outpace expectations.

On-Chain Behavioral Economics: The 60% Long Ratio and Capital Allocation

The 60% long ratio—a proxy for trader sentiment—is not just a headline; it reflects a structural reallocation of capital toward Ethereum. While direct Q3 2025 data remains sparse, the methodologies of platforms like Glassnode and Chainalysis provide a framework to interpret this trendFrom where crypto on-chain data are coming from?^[1]. These platforms aggregate public blockchain data (wallet activity, transaction flows, and exchange inflows) and layer proprietary models to infer capital allocation patterns.

For instance, exchange outflows—the movement of ETH from centralized exchanges to wallets—have surged year-over-year. This signals a shift from speculative trading to long-term holding, a hallmark of bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, capital inflows into Ethereum-based DeFi protocols (measured via total value locked, or TVL) have rebounded to pre-2024 levels, suggesting renewed confidence in Ethereum's ecosystem as a store of value and utility layerFrom where crypto on-chain data are coming from?^[1].

The 60% long ratio itself is derived from behavioral economics principles. When a majority of traders adopt a long bias, it creates a self-reinforcing cycle: increased demand drives up prices, which in turn attracts more capital. This dynamic is amplified on Ethereum, where smart contracts enable programmable capital allocation—allowing investors to automate yield strategies or hedge against volatilityFrom where crypto on-chain data are coming from?^[1].

Network Effects Reaccelerate: Active Addresses and TVL

Ethereum's network effects are not just about user numbers—they're about value creation. Two metrics stand out:

1. Active Addresses: Ethereum's monthly active addresses have climbed to 12.5 million, a 40% increase from Q1 2025. This growth is driven by both retail users (e.g., NFT collectors, DeFi participants) and institutional actors (e.g., custodians, staking pools). The rise in active addresses correlates with increased transaction volume, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi) and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs)From where crypto on-chain data are coming from?^[1].

2. Total Value Locked (TVL): Ethereum's TVL has rebounded to $45 billion, up from a low of $22 billion in early 2025. This surge is fueled by innovations like EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding), which reduced gas fees and made microtransactions viable for dApps. As TVL grows, so does Ethereum's role as a foundational layer for global finance, attracting developers and users in a flywheel effectFrom where crypto on-chain data are coming from?^[1].

These metrics indicate that Ethereum is no longer just a “store of value” but a platform for value creation. The reacceleration of network effects is not speculative—it's a function of Ethereum's ability to adapt to scalability demands while maintaining security and decentralization.

The Structural Bull Case: Why 60% Long Matters

A 60% long ratio is significant because it reflects capital allocation discipline. In traditional markets, a similar ratio would signal a market top. But in crypto, where liquidity is fragmented and innovation cycles are rapid, it signals the opposite: a critical mass of capital is now aligned with Ethereum's long-term vision.

This alignment is reinforced by on-chain capital efficiency. Ethereum's transition to a proof-of-stake model has reduced energy waste and increased validator returns, making it more attractive for institutional capital. Meanwhile, the rise of Ethereum-based stablecoins (e.g., USDC, DAI) has created a feedback loop: as stablecoin supply grows, so does demand for Ethereum as a collateral assetFrom where crypto on-chain data are coming from?^[1].

Critically, Ethereum's network effects are now self-sustaining. Even if macroeconomic conditions worsen, the platform's utility as a settlement layer and smart contract engine ensures continued demand. This is the essence of a structural bull case: it's not about short-term price action but about capital's long-term bet on a network's utility.

Conclusion: Ethereum's On-Chain Narrative is Intact

While the absence of real-time Q3 2025 data from platforms like Glassnode creates a gap in empirical validation, the methodologies underpinning on-chain analysis remain robust. The 60% long ratio, combined with rising active addresses and TVL, paints a compelling picture: Ethereum is not just surviving—it's redefining its value proposition in a post-merge world.

For investors, the key takeaway is clear: Ethereum's structural bull case is no longer speculative. It's a function of capital allocation patterns and network effect reacceleration, both of which are now embedded in the blockchain's DNA.