Ethereum's Bullish Momentum: Supertrend Flip, Short Liquidations, and Whale Activity Signal a Major Turnaround

Ethereum's price action in late 2025 has sparked renewed optimism among investors, driven by a confluence of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic signals. A critical inflection point emerged in November 2025 as the Supertrend indicator flipped from bearish to bullish, coinciding with massive short liquidations and aggressive accumulation by institutional and whale-level investors. This analysis synthesizes on-chain data, whale behavior, and macroeconomic tailwinds to assess Ethereum's trajectory and the likelihood of a sustained bullish breakout.

Technical Indicators: Supertrend Flip and Momentum Shifts

Ethereum's Supertrend indicator, a key technical tool for identifying trend reversals, flipped from red to green in late November 2025, signaling a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. This reversal occurred after a 30% rebound from November's lows, supported by over $120 million in short liquidations, which underscored growing buying pressure. While Ethereum remained below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and faced resistance at $4,250, the Supertrend's green signal suggested a retesting of key support levels, such as $3,667, could trigger a rally toward $4,070–$4,240.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) further contextualized this shift. Ethereum's RSI of 39.74 indicated a neutral zone, avoiding overbought or oversold extremes, while the MACD highlighted the need for continued monitoring of momentum shifts. Analysts noted that a strong monthly close above $4,070 would validate a long-term uptrend, aligning with the Supertrend's bullish signal.

On-Chain Metrics: Active Addresses and Exchange Outflows

On-chain data reinforced the technical narrative. Between November 26 and December 3, 2025, Ethereum's active addresses surged by 601,993, with 430,122 sending addresses and 297,879 receiving addresses recorded during a price peak to $3,058. This surge in activity, coupled with a 1.40% decline in Ethereum reserves, on exchanges, reflected a net outflow of 234,756 ETH-a-sign of investor confidence in holding rather than selling during price declines.

Staking activity also showed mixed but encouraging trends. While Total Value Staked (TVS) dipped slightly by 0.14%, staking inflows surged 312.66%, indicating renewed interest in yield-generating strategies. These metrics collectively pointed to a market transitioning from capitulation to accumulation, with on-chain behavior mirroring the Supertrend's bullish flip.

Whale Activity: Institutional Confidence and Accumulation

Whale-level transactions in November 2025 provided further validation of a bullish turnaround. Institutional and large-scale investors opened $426 million in Ethereum longs, targeting a breakout toward $4,000. Whale accumulation in the $2,950–$3,050 range increased by 1.8% over two weeks, with several wallets adding positions exceeding 10,000 ETH. Notably, a decade-old Ethereum ICO wallet holding 40,000 ETH (~$120 million) was reactivated and staked, signaling long-term conviction.

This whale behavior aligns with Ethereum's improving technical structure and the anticipation of the Fusaka upgrade in early December, which aims to enhance scalability and reduce transaction costs. Such upgrades historically correlate with increased institutional adoption, as they address Ethereum's scalability limitations and position it for broader use cases.

Macro Drivers: ETFs, Regulatory Tailwinds, and Institutional Adoption

Ethereum's bullish momentum was further amplified by macroeconomic factors. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted nearly $5 billion in net inflows over the past month, outpacing Bitcoin ETFs and creating a robust support base. Regulatory developments, including the potential SEC approval of staking within U.S. spot ETH ETFs (e.g., BlackRock's ETHA), added a new layer of institutional demand.

Legislative progress, such as the passage of the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, also created a favorable environment for crypto ETFs by enhancing oversight and transparency. These developments, combined with Ethereum's role in tokenized treasuries, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, positioned it as a cornerstone of institutional crypto adoption. North America accounted for 26% of all crypto transaction value in 2025, underscoring its dominance in driving Ethereum's institutional uptake.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite these positives, Ethereum faces headwinds. Rising U.S. yields and cooling ETF inflows in late 2025 prompted some institutional allocations to shift toward Treasury-linked yields. Additionally, Ethereum's performance lagged behind Bitcoin in volatile macroeconomic conditions, as Bitcoin's perceived safety drew capital during market corrections. However, historical trends suggest Ethereum may outperform Bitcoin in the next bullish cycle, particularly after a deleveraging phase.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Bullish Signals

Ethereum's November 2025 price action reflects a critical juncture where technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic signals align to support a bullish breakout. The Supertrend flip, coupled with short liquidations and whale accumulation, indicates a shift in market sentiment from capitulation to conviction. Meanwhile, regulatory tailwinds and institutional adoption provide a durable foundation for long-term growth. While macroeconomic headwinds persist, Ethereum's fundamentals-bolstered by upcoming upgrades and robust on-chain activity-position it for a potential rally toward $4,070 and beyond. Investors should monitor key resistance levels and ETF inflow trends as the market navigates this pivotal phase.