Ethereum's $4,350 Test: Whale Liquidations vs. ETF-Driven Bullish Bets
Ethereum’s price has retreated below $4,500, testing critical support levels as market dynamics shift amid mixed signals from whale activity and institutional sentiment. Whale liquidations of 90,000 ETH (~$500 million) in the last 48 hours have intensified short-term selling pressure, according to onchain analyst Ali Martinez [1]. This follows a $61.70 million outflow from spot EthereumETH-- ETFs on September 17, driven by Citigroup’s bearish forecast of a potential decline to $2,200 in a pessimistic scenario [1]. However, CitigroupC-- also outlined a bullish case of $6,400, citing institutional demand for spot ETFs as a key driver [1]. Analysts like Michael van de Poppe emphasize the $4,400 level as a crucial inflection point, with a breakdown potentially triggering a rebound below $4,000 [1]. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 54, signaling bearish momentum in the absence of bullish catalysts [1].
Onchain data from the weekly Ethereum report (September 10–17) reveals mixed trends. Active addresses increased to 494,472, with active receiving addresses peaking at 354,073 on the week’s high of $4,714 [2]. Total Value Staked fell by 0.25% to 36,035,335 ETH, while Staking Inflows rose 7.6% to 17,745 ETH [2]. Exchange reserves dropped by 0.82% to 17,064,952 ETH, indicating investors are pulling assets out of exchanges rather than selling [2]. Derivatives activity showed caution, with open interest for ETH futures declining 1% on CME and 1.5% on Binance ahead of the Fed’s rate cut decision [1].
The Fed’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut has added complexity to Ethereum’s outlook. While analysts like Crypto Tony highlight $4,770 as a key resistance for a rally, a breakdown below $4,350 could invalidate upside momentum [1]. CoinGlass data shows total ETH futures open interest rose 0.5% to $63.31 billion in the last 24 hours, but derivatives traders remain cautious [1]. Michael van de Poppe notes that a rebound above $4,400 could trigger long liquidations, while a fall below $4,350 may attract “buy the dip” strategies [1].
Bitcoin’s price action has also drawn attention, with the asset trading near $97,900 as it approaches the 4-hour 200 MA at $98,139 . A sustained move above this level could signal bullish momentum, with analysts eyeing $128,000 as a potential “blow-off top” target . Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance has declined to 57.9%, historically signaling a shift toward altcoins . This trend aligns with Ethereum’s potential rebound, as institutional inflows into ETFs and corporate treasuries continue to support the broader market .
Market sentiment remains split. Citigroup’s bearish and bullish scenarios underscore the uncertainty, with layer-2 growth and on-chain value metrics influencing price trajectories [1]. However, Ethereum’s supply distribution data shows a bullish outlook, with wallet categories holding 100–100k ETH rising by 1.65% [2]. Exchange supply ratios and fees also suggest tightening liquidity, reinforcing the case for a potential rebound [2].
Bitcoin’s dominance decline to 57.9% has sparked speculation about an altcoin season, with altcoin market cap reaching $1.12 trillion . Projects like XRPXRP-- and SolanaSOL-- have shown resilience, with XRP trading near its 2017 high of $3.35 and Solana consolidating between $200–$260 . However, Ethereum’s institutional adoption and ETF inflows remain critical for broader crypto momentum.
As Ethereum tests $4,350, the interplay between whale behavior, ETF flows, and macroeconomic factors will shape its trajectory. A rebound above $4,400 could reignite bullish sentiment, while a breakdown may extend the correction. For BitcoinBTC--, the Fed’s rate cut and derivatives activity will determine whether it reaches $128,000 or consolidates. The crypto market’s next moves hinge on these dynamics, with institutional demand and regulatory clarity serving as key long-term catalysts.
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