Ethereum's $2,895 Cost Floor: A Strategic Entry Point for Long-Term Buyers

Ethereum's current price action has positioned the asset at a critical juncture for long-term investors. Trading near $3,150, the network sits just 8% above the realized price of $2,895 for accumulation addresses-a threshold representing the average cost basis of long-term holders (LTHs) according to analysis. This proximity to a historically significant support level, combined with surging on-chain accumulation and institutional demand, suggests a maturing bull setup that could attract value-driven buyers in the coming months.

On-Chain Accumulation: A Structural Shift in Investor Behavior

On-chain data reveals a sharp increase in Ethereum's accumulation activity. As of late 2025, over 17 million ETH has flowed into accumulation addresses, pushing the total held by these wallets to 27 million ETH from 10 million earlier in the year. This surge reflects a strategic shift by long-term investors who view the current price as undervalued, particularly amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

The $2,895 level has historically acted as a robust support zone, with Ethereum typically rebounding from this price during prior market downturns. If the price were to dip further toward $2,800–$2,900, it could trigger renewed buying interest from LTHs, reinforcing the idea that this level represents a compelling entry point. Notably, Ethereum remains above its 200-week moving average-a key technical indicator that has historically defined major cycle lows according to data. This alignment of on-chain behavior and technical indicators strengthens the case for a potential bullish reversal.

Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows: A New Era of Institutional Adoption

Institutional demand for Ethereum has also shown signs of reacceleration. Late December 2025 saw a $57.6 million net inflow into Ethereum ETFs, driven primarily by BlackRock's $56.5 million purchase through its ETHA product. This marked a reversal from November's $1.8 billion in ETF outflows, which reflected short-term de-risking amid regulatory uncertainty. The inflows underscore growing institutional confidence, particularly as BlackRock's ETHA fund has now attracted over $230 million in total net inflows since its launch according to reports.

Whale activity further corroborates this trend. A major wallet shifted $132.5 million in Bitcoin into $140.2 million in Ethereum over two weeks, signaling a strategic rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum. This move, coupled with the accumulation of 800,000 ETH by wallets holding 10,000–100,000 ETH between October and December 2025, highlights a broader shift in market sentiment. Such behavior suggests that large holders are positioning for Ethereum's long-term potential, particularly as the network's structural supply dynamics improve.

Structural Scarcity and Staking: Reinforcing Ethereum's Value Proposition

Post-December 2025, Ethereum's institutional investment strategies and on-chain staking activity have created a tighter supply environment. Only 8.7% of Ethereum's total supply-approximately 16.6 million ETH-remains on centralized exchanges, a 20% decline since July 2025. This reduction in float is driven by large-scale accumulation from institutions like Bitmine, which executed a $435 million ETH purchase, and the launch of staked Ethereum ETFs such as BlackRock's Staked Ethereum ETF, which raised $620 million in its first 10 days.

With 32.4 million ETH now staked (27% of total supply), the network's structural scarcity has deepened, locking coins into long-term protocols and reducing immediate sell pressure. This trend is further reinforced by the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025, which improved transaction efficiency and encouraged greater adoption of private wallets and staking mechanisms. As Ethereum's role as a smart contract hub expands-bolstered by growing TVL on L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism-the asset's utility and demand are poised to outpace supply constraints.

Conclusion: A Compelling Case for Strategic Entry

Ethereum's proximity to the $2,895 cost floor, combined with on-chain accumulation, institutional inflows, and structural supply dynamics, presents a compelling case for long-term buyers. The alignment of LTH behavior, whale rotations, and institutional confidence suggests that the current price represents a strategic entry point amid macroeconomic uncertainty. As Ethereum continues to solidify its position as a foundational layer for decentralized finance and application development, investors who act now may be well-positioned to capitalize on the next phase of its bull cycle.