Ethena USDe/Tether Market Overview

• Ethena USDe/Tether traded in a narrow range, with price action confined between 0.9992 and 0.9994.
• Price showed limited directional momentum, with RSI hovering near neutral and no overbought/oversold signals.
• Volume increased moderately during late-night ET, but failed to confirm strong price moves.
• A minor breakout attempt above the upper Bollinger Band failed, suggesting continued consolidation.
• Key resistance at 0.9994 and support at 0.9992 appear to anchor short-term trading ranges.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 0.9993 on 2025-10-18 and closed at 0.9993 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-19. Price action ranged between a high of 0.9994 and a low of 0.9992. Over the 24-hour period, total trading volume amounted to approximately 100 million units, with notional turnover reaching ~$99.93 million at current prices.

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a pattern of tight consolidation, with prices largely oscillating between the 0.9992 and 0.9994 range. Several 15-minute candles showed minimal price movement, including doji and spinning top formations, suggesting indecision among traders. Notably, price brushed against the upper Bollinger Band during the early hours of October 19, but failed to hold above, indicating that the 0.9994 level remains a strong resistance. Conversely, the 0.9992 level acted as a consistent support, with price bouncing off it multiple times throughout the day.

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, both hovering around 0.9993, reinforcing the sideways bias. The 20-period MA remained slightly above the 50-period MA, though the difference was negligible. The RSI oscillator fluctuated between 40 and 60, indicating a neutral momentum environment. No overbought or oversold conditions were observed, further supporting the interpretation of a consolidation phase. MACD values remained flat, with the histogram showing minimal divergence, consistent with the lack of directional bias.

Volume and notional turnover were generally consistent, with moderate increases observed between 00:00 and 04:00 ET, when price briefly tested the 0.9994 level. However, the increase in turnover did not lead to a sustained break above the resistance, highlighting a lack of conviction in the bullish direction. A Fibonacci retracement applied to the recent 15-minute swing (from 0.9992 to 0.9994) shows the 0.9993 level aligning with the 50% retracement level, suggesting a potential area of interest for traders. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is positioned slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish bias for the broader trend.

Backtest Hypothesis
To better understand potential trading outcomes, a backtesting strategy is proposed based on the Bollinger Bands (20-period, ±2σ) and the defined price action around these levels. The hypothesis assumes that a breakout above the upper band (resistance) could signal a bullish signal, while a breakdown below the lower band (support) could indicate a bearish signal. Given the data discrepancy in retrieving the exact Bollinger Band series for “USDEUSDT,” we will need confirmation on the exact ticker symbol and the exchange (e.g., Binance, Kraken) for accurate data retrieval. Additionally, we must clarify whether resistance/support is defined as touching the Bollinger Band or using a 30-day high/low or another methodology. Once these are resolved, the backtest can be constructed using historical data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-19 to assess the profitability and reliability of such a strategy.