Ethena USDe/Tether Market Overview

• Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) traded in a narrow range most of the day before dropping below 1.0000.
• Volume spiked sharply after 05:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp price decline.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening momentum as bearish momentum accelerated in the final hours.
• Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting low volatility and potential consolidation.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.9998–0.9999 showed strong bearish clustering, indicating critical support to watch.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 1.0002 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.0004 before closing at 0.9998 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The 24-hour trading range was 1.0001–1.0004, with total volume of 156,601,762.0 and total turnover amounting to 83,853,969.57 USDT.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the past 24 hours revealed a bearish bias as the pair broke below the 1.0002 psychological level. A key support at 0.9998–0.9999 emerged in the final hours, with several candles showing rejection from this zone. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early hours of the morning session, coinciding with a sharp drop from 1.0002 to 0.9999. A doji at 05:00 ET signaled indecision, followed by a continued downtrend. These patterns suggest that sellers gained control after the morning break.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained flat in the 1.0001–1.0003 range, but the price dropped below both in the final hour, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average at 1.0003 offered initial support, but the price failed to hold there, suggesting further testing of the 1.0001–0.9998 area is likely in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the morning, with the signal line pulling away, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. The RSI dipped below 50 and continued to decline, hitting 32 in the final hours, signaling oversold conditions. While this may indicate potential for a bounce, the divergence between falling price and improving RSI is not yet strong enough to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning session as the price moved from the upper to the lower Bollinger Band. The 15-minute band width increased from ~0.0001 to ~0.0003, indicating heightened uncertainty. The closing price at 0.9998 was near the lower band, which is typically a bearish sign and could prompt short-term buyers near the 0.9997–0.9999 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 05:00 ET, with the largest single candle (05:0000) showing a turnover of 16,649,696.0 USDT. This was followed by a continued downtrend, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. The high volume on the morning session decline, combined with a lower close, confirms bearish strength. No significant divergence was noted between price and volume, which suggests continuation is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.0004 to 0.9998, the 61.8% level is at 0.9999 and the 38.2% at 1.0001. The price has tested and briefly bounced off the 61.8% level, which is now acting as support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a larger move sits at 0.9999, aligning with the 15-minute-level cluster. This suggests the price may consolidate near this area before testing the next level down at 0.9996–0.9997.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the 15-minute candlestick pattern and RSI divergence could involve entering short positions when the price closes below the 20-period MA and the RSI falls below 40, with a stop just above the 50-period MA. A trailing stop could be used as the price moves toward the 0.9997–0.9999 Fibonacci zone. A key exit signal could be a bullish engulfing pattern forming near this level, which might indicate a reversal. This approach would align with the recent bearish momentum but also provide a mechanism to capture potential short-covering rallies.