Ethena USDe/Tether Market Overview

• USDE/USDT traded in a narrow range with choppy price action, consolidating between 0.9999 and 1.0007 over 24 hours.
• Momentum indicators showed mixed signals, with RSI hovering near midline and MACD lines converging.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with a sharp selloff into the 0.9999 level, followed by a partial recovery.
• Turnover spiked during the 01:00–05:00 ET selloff but remained generally low on a 15-min basis.
• No strong candlestick reversal patterns formed, though a bearish rejection at 1.0002 was evident.

The Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) pair opened at 1.0006 on October 2, 2025, and remained in a tight trading range throughout the 24-hour period, reaching a high of 1.0007 and a low of 0.9993, with a final close at 1.0001. Total trading volume was 237,600,980.0 units, and notional turnover amounted to 237,600,980.0. Price action displayed a lack of directional bias, with frequent retests of key levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action for the USDE/USDT pair remained confined between 0.9999 and 1.0007 for most of the 24-hour period, with the 1.0002 level acting as a key pivot. A bearish rejection at 1.0002 occurred overnight as sellers emerged, pushing price down to 0.9993. However, subsequent buying interest pulled the price back toward the 1.0002 level, failing to close above it. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.9999 on the 15-minute chart, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. A doji formed around 0.9999–1.0001, signaling indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained well within the 20- and 50-period moving averages, with no clear breakout above or below. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages showed minimal divergence, with the 50-period MA slightly above the others. This suggests a relatively neutral trend without a strong directional bias, though the price has been trading near the 50-period MA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a slow convergence, with both the MACD and signal line hovering around the zero line, indicating lack of strong momentum. The RSI moved between 45 and 55 for most of the 24-hour period, suggesting a lack of overbought or oversold conditions. A bearish divergence was noted in the 03:00–05:00 ET window when price made a lower high, while RSI peaked slightly earlier. This divergence may indicate weakening bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the overnight sell-off, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly. Price tested the lower band at 0.9993 and rebounded, but failed to close above the 1.0002 level. The current price sits near the middle band, with no strong breakout above or below the outer bands. This pattern suggests a consolidation phase may be ongoing, with potential for a breakout in either direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 01:15–05:00 ET selloff, with the largest 15-minute volume of 23,760,098.0 units occurring during the 01:15 ET candle. Turnover confirmed the price decline, with significant liquidity observed as price moved lower. However, volume remained generally low throughout the remainder of the 24-hour window. No clear divergence between price and turnover was observed, but the low volume during consolidation suggests limited conviction in either direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the overnight low (0.9993) and the prior high (1.0007) shows key levels at 38.2% (1.0003), 50% (1.0000), and 61.8% (0.9997). Price has shown resistance at the 38.2% level, bouncing back to the 50% level in the final hours. This suggests that further downward movement could test the 61.8% retracement level, while a reversal above 1.0003 could indicate a resumption of bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves identifying consolidation patterns where price moves within a range defined by key Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Bands. If the price forms a bearish engulfing pattern at a key pivot level (such as 1.0002) and volume increases significantly during a break below the lower Bollinger Band, this could trigger a short signal. A stop-loss could be placed above the 50-period MA, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum during periods of low volatility and indecision.