Can Ethena (ENA) Maintain $0.20 Amid Large Exchange Deposits and Bearish Indicators?

Ethena (ENA), the token underpinning the USDe stablecoin ecosystem, has faced mounting scrutiny as it hovers near the critical $0.20 support level. Recent on-chain activity, including massive exchange deposits by Ethena Labs and bearish technical indicators, has raised concerns about the token's structural resilience. However, whale accumulation and institutional partnerships suggest a nuanced market dynamic. This analysis evaluates whether ENA can hold $0.20 by dissecting exchange deposit trends, whale behavior, and order book depth.

Bearish Pressures: Exchange Deposits and Technical Indicators

Ethena Labs has deposited 101.79 million ENA tokens ($20.9 million) across exchanges like Coinbase, Bybit, and FalconX, signaling potential liquidity needs or distribution strategies. These deposits, coupled with a $4.7 million transfer to FalconX in December 2025, have intensified fears of selling pressure. The token's price rebounded to $0.2127 after briefly holding $0.20, but technical indicators remain bearish. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) and Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) both point to downward momentum, while ENA trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages according to market data.

The bearish sentiment is further amplified by Ethena's ecosystem challenges, including a collapsing TVL for USDe and delays in the Converge blockchain launch. These factors have eroded short-term confidence, with some analysts projecting ENA to dip as low as $0.1612 by December 26, 2025.

Bullish Counterweights: Whale Accumulation and Institutional Support

Despite these headwinds, whale activity suggests strategic accumulation. A single whale withdrew $13.11 million from Binance and Bybit, using $5.1 million to purchase 17.76 million ENA on Hyperliquid according to market reports. Another whale acquired 14.56 million ENA ($3.5 million) from Binance and Wintermute, staking the tokens to reduce sell pressure according to market data. These actions, combined with Ethena Labs' purchase of 25 million ENA ($7.05 million) in October 2025, indicate confidence in the token's long-term value.

Institutional adoption also provides a counterbalance. Ethena's partnership with Anchorage Digital, which offers in-platform rewards for USDtb and USDe holders, has boosted liquidity and institutional participation. Additionally, the proposed fee switch-allowing ENA holders to access protocol profits-could catalyze price growth in Q4 2025.

Order Book Depth and Structural Resilience

While direct order book depth data at $0.20 is scarce, historical patterns suggest structural support. The $0.245–$0.275 range has historically acted as a catalyst for rebounds, and whale activity in this zone-such as the 14.56 million ENA purchase-indicates sufficient liquidity to absorb large trades. Furthermore, 780 million ENA ($213 million) were accumulated in mid-December 2025 during a selloff, reinforcing the idea that large players view ENA as undervalued.

Technical indicators also hint at potential resilience. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32 and 68% of Binance traders being long ENA suggest oversold conditions. If ENA stabilizes above $0.20, it could retest the $0.2423 support level, where further bullish momentum might emerge.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

Ethena's ability to maintain $0.20 hinges on the interplay between bearish selling pressure and bullish whale/institutional support. While exchange deposits and technical indicators favor a short-term decline, strategic accumulation and ecosystem upgrades could provide a floor. The key will be whether whale activity continues to outweigh Ethena Labs' exchange distributions and whether the fee switch or institutional partnerships drive meaningful adoption. For now, $0.20 remains a critical psychological and structural level-its defense will likely determine ENA's trajectory in the coming months.