ETHDAI Market Overview: Volatility and Bearish Momentum Continue to Dominate

• ETHDAI declined 24 hours by ~7.8%, closing at 4345.34 after a sharp sell-off post-noon ET.
• Key support held near 4250–4300 DAI, with volume surging on the 10/10 afternoon break.
• Volatility expanded sharply late ET, with Bollinger Bands widening beyond 300 DAI width.
• RSI oversold briefly near 28, but lack of bullish follow-through suggests bearish momentum remains.
• Large bearish engulfing patterns emerged at 4370–4330, signaling continued selling pressure.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened on 2025-10-09 at 4300.12 DAI and closed at 4345.34 DAI on 2025-10-10, with a 24-hour high of 4396.48 and a low of 4104.73. Total traded volume reached 131.24 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 566,221 DAI. Price action was characterized by a late-day selloff and choppy morning trading, with bearish momentum dominating the last 6 hours.

Structure & Formations

ETHDAI exhibited a bearish bias, with a strong break below the 4300–4350 consolidation range. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed near 4370–4330, indicating increased bearish sentiment. A doji appeared at 4370, suggesting indecision after an early rally. Key support levels are now at 4250 and 4200, while immediate resistance is at 4370. The price appears to be setting up for a potential bounce or continuation of the downtrend based on the next candle’s action.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

The 15-minute chart shows a sharp cross below the 50-period moving average, confirming the bearish turn. On the daily chart, ETHDAI remains below the 200-period moving average, suggesting a longer-term downtrend is in place. The RSI reached an oversold level near 28 during the afternoon dip but failed to close above 30, indicating weak bullish conviction. MACD showed a bearish divergence as the price bottomed but failed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded dramatically during the afternoon selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening beyond 300 DAI. Price action touched the lower band at 4104.73, signaling a potential mean reversion or continuation. The bands are now converging slightly, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead. However, without a strong reversal, further downside into the next support at 4200 is likely.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, with the largest single 15-minute candle recording 17.44 ETH traded at 4290.17 DAI. This aligns with the largest price drop of the day. Notional turnover also spiked during the same period, confirming the bearish move. However, the lack of follow-through buying in the late hours suggests weak accumulation and continued bearish pressure. Divergences between price and turnover were not observed, indicating a cohesive bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 4396.48 to 4104.73, key levels of 4333 (38.2%) and 4261 (61.8%) were briefly tested. The price currently rests near the 4261 level, with further support at 4200 and 4150 ahead. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous major bullish move is now acting as a resistance, which remains untested.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for ETHDAI involves entering short positions on a close below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss above the recent high of the current bearish candle. A take-profit target can be set at the next Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8% at 4261 or 4200). This approach leverages the clear bearish momentum and volume confirmation observed in today’s data, aligning with a short-term continuation pattern.