ETHDAI Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Session with Mixed Momentum

Summary
• Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) fell from 3,531.46 to 3,230.0 before a late rally brought it back to 3,346.31.
• A sharp bearish reversal formed early, followed by consolidation and a modest recovery.
• Volume spiked during key price swings but remained uneven across the session.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 3,531.46 on 2025-11-04 12:00 ET and traded between 3,230.0 and 3,531.46 before closing at 3,346.31 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 54.0109, and the estimated turnover (value) was approximately 177,925.96 DAI, based on weighted prices and volumes.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern in the first 15-minute candle, followed by a doji near the session low, suggesting short-term indecision. A subsequent bullish reversal emerged from the 3,230.0 support level, indicating potential buying interest. The 3,346.31 level appears to be a temporary resistance, coinciding with a prior high and a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the earlier downward move.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum (15-min chart) suggests the price is currently below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating a bearish bias in the immediate term. For the daily chart, the 50/200 SMA crossover remains neutral, with price hovering slightly below the 50SMA but above the 200SMA, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before a directional breakout.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum, while the histogram shows a narrowing, suggesting waning downward pressure. The RSI has moved into oversold territory (33), indicating a potential short-term bounce. However, without a strong reversal in volume or price, further consolidation or a bearish continuation remains likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after the bearish breakout in the early session, with price dropping to the lower band. It later moved back toward the midline, suggesting a return to equilibrium. The bands remain relatively wide, indicating ongoing uncertainty and the potential for renewed directional movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakdown to 3,230.0 and again during the recovery to 3,346.31. Notional turnover increased proportionally with price moves, with the largest increase occurring in the 19:30–20:00 and 01:30–02:00 ET timeframes. The divergence between volume and price during the 03:00–04:00 ET consolidation phase suggests limited conviction in the current move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels from the 3,531.46 high to the 3,230.0 low are as follows:
- 38.2% retracement at 3,392.29
- 50.0% retracement at 3,380.73
- 61.8% retracement at 3,369.17

Price has stabilized near the 61.8% level, suggesting it could act as either a support or a temporary resistance in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The inability to access technical indicator data for ETHDAI limits the ability to construct a full backtest. However, based on the observed price structure and volatility, a potential strategy could be to enter short positions on a confirmed breakdown of 3,346.31 (resistance-turned-support) with a stop above 3,369.17 (61.8% retracement) and a target near 3,320.0–3,310.0. A long entry could be considered on a breakout above 3,346.31, with a stop below 3,330.0. Further confirmation from volume and RSI divergence would be needed to improve the signal quality.