ETF Exodus and Fed Jitters Test Bitcoin’s $107K Survival Line

Bitcoin entered a bearish phase in late September 2025, with prices declining to $111,000 as the $107,000 support level became a focal point for accumulation. The cryptocurrency’s weekly drop of 5% reflected broader market weakness, with $1.6 billion in crypto derivatives liquidations recorded on September 21 alone. The selloff coincided with steep outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, including a $360 million net outflow on September 22, with the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund alone reporting $277 million in withdrawals. These trends underscored a shift in investor sentiment, with the fear and greed index firmly in fear territory.

Technical analysis highlighted the $107,000 level as a critical support zone. A breakdown below this threshold risked triggering further declines toward $105,000, while a successful defense could rekindle accumulation activity. The $107,000 level had previously acted as a psychological barrier, and its role as a potential floor for institutional buying was amplified by the broader market context. Corporate treasury activity, which had driven Bitcoin’s rally earlier in the year, showed signs of slowing. Approximately 5% of circulating Bitcoin was held by public companies, but a quarter of these entities now had market caps below their crypto holdings, raising concerns about liquidity pressures.

Regulatory developments added complexity to Bitcoin’s outlook. While the SEC’s recent approval of the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF—allowing exposure to assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum—signaled a more inclusive regulatory approach, the broader ETF landscape remained volatile. The $360 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows highlighted caution among investors, particularly as the market digested the Federal Reserve’s mixed signals on rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on balancing inflation and employment risks contributed to a risk-off sentiment, with leveraged positions exacerbating price swings.

Market participants were closely watching the interplay between institutional demand and macroeconomic factors. The $23 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiries on September 25 added short-term volatility, while the NVT (Network Value to Transaction) ratio for Bitcoin had surged to historically high levels, indicating potential overvaluation. However, analysts noted that sustained accumulation at the $107,000 level could stabilize the market, particularly if ETF inflows resumed. The ProShares Ultra XRP ETF’s performance—despite its higher expense ratio—suggested that institutional interest in crypto assets remained robustInvezz^[3], potentially spilling over into Bitcoin demand.

Looking ahead, the path for Bitcoin hinged on three key variables: the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, the outcome of pending XRP ETF approvals, and the resilience of corporate treasury demand. While the $107,000 support zone offered a near-term anchor, broader market conditions—including the $1.6 billion in liquidations and corporate balance sheet risks—suggested a volatile road ahead. Analysts emphasized that a sustained rebound would require not only a defense of critical support levels but also renewed confidence in the macroeconomic environment and regulatory clarity.