ETCUSDT Market Overview: Ethereum Classic/Tether

• Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) declined from $15.76 to $15.39 after forming bearish reversal patterns.
• Volume surged during the sharp pullback to $14.92, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions early, followed by bearish divergence.
• A 15-minute Bollinger Band contraction occurred before the breakout to the downside.
• Total volume exceeded 720,000, with $11 million notional turnover in 24 hours.

Market Snapshot and Context

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $15.29 on 2025-10-11 at 16:00 ET and closed at $15.39 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $16.59 and a low of $14.39 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 720,067.63, and the notional turnover amounted to $11.16 million.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish reversal pattern forming as the price declined after reaching a short-term high near $16.59. A large bearish engulfing pattern was observed around the $15.76–$15.50 range, followed by a bearish harami near $15.64. The pair broke down from a key support level at $15.40 and tested $14.92, forming a bearish breakout pattern.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are bearish, with price consistently below both. The 20SMA is at ~$15.40 and the 50SMA at ~$15.50, both indicating a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA sits at ~$15.65, while the 200DMA is at ~$15.80, suggesting the price remains in a broader bearish trend.

The RSI on the 15-minute chart peaked at 86 and has since declined to ~54, indicating a bearish correction. The MACD line crossed below the signal line around $0.20, confirming a bearish momentum shift.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly as the price dropped from $15.76 to $14.92. The 20-period Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the breakout, with the price moving from the upper to the lower band during the decline. The recent price action resides at the lower band, indicating high bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

The most significant volume spike occurred during the breakdown to $14.92, where trading activity jumped to ~39,142.83 on the 15-minute chart. Notional turnover spiked concurrently, supporting the price move. However, during the recovery attempt from $14.92, volume was lower and failed to confirm the bounce, suggesting weak bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute decline from $16.59 to $14.92 reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $15.32. The 38.2% level (~$15.52) appears to have acted as resistance during the recovery. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% levels (~$15.65 and $15.55) may serve as key areas to watch for potential bounces or breakouts.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described employs a combination of RSI and MACD for momentum confirmation, coupled with Fibonacci retracements to identify high-probability entry and exit points. A potential backtest entry signal would be triggered when RSI crosses below 50 while MACD confirms a bearish crossover, and the price approaches a key Fibonacci support level. Exit rules could include a stop-loss below the 38.2% level or a target at the 50% retracement. Given the current price near the 61.8% retracement, and with RSI and MACD signaling bearish momentum, the setup could be favorably tested with defined risk parameters.