Estee Lauder Slides 3.64% to $83.65 Marking Fifth Straight Loss Amid Bearish Technicals

The Estee Lauder (EL) declined 3.64% in the latest session to close at $83.65, marking its fifth consecutive daily loss with a cumulative 6.22% drop during this period. This persistent downward momentum establishes $83.45 as immediate support, while recent consolidation near $89–$91 forms a resistance zone validated by multiple failed breakout attempts in early September.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a dominant bearish pattern, evidenced by five consecutive descending candles with elongated bodies – particularly the 3.64% loss on September 12 closing near the session low. The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or engulfing candles near $83.45 suggests vulnerable support. Key resistance emerges at $87.50–$88.70, aligning with the consolidation zone preceding the current decline.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($87.20) has crossed below both the 100-day MA ($88.10) and 200-day MA ($84.80), confirming a bearish intermediate trend. Current price trading below all three averages indicates sustained selling pressure. The 200-day MA at $84.80 may offer initial support, but its proximity to the price risks becoming resistance if tested from below.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD maintains a bearish configuration with the signal line above the MACD histogram and both in negative territory. KDJ shows oversold conditions (K=18, D=23, J=8), though sustained divergence remains absent. Despite KDJ signaling potential exhaustion, MACD’s lack of bullish convergence suggests downward momentum persists. A MACD bullish crossover would require confirmation from volume and price action.
Bollinger Bands
Bands are expanding with the price touching the lower band at $83.45, indicating elevated volatility favoring bears. The widening gap between upper ($89.30) and lower bands highlights strong directional momentum. A close above the 20-day midline ($86.20) would be needed to signal stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume spiked to 3.48 million shares during the September 5 rally, but subsequent declines have occurred on diminishing volume – most recently 3.21 million shares versus the 10-day average of 2.8 million. This divergence implies weakening selling pressure near $83 support. However, absence of accumulation volume prevents confidence in a near-term reversal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (29) has entered oversold territory. While this traditionally signals potential recovery, the indicator’s failure to exit oversold during the five-day decline cautions against premature reversal calls. Similar oversold conditions in early August preceded a 10% rally, but current weaker volume and MA alignment reduce the probability of comparable strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the August 13 high ($95.26) and September 12 low ($83.45):
• 38.2% retracement at $87.80 aligns with September 9 resistance
• 50% level at $89.35 converges with the 50-day MA and September swing highs
• 61.8% at $90.90 matches the August resistance cluster
The 38.2% level now acts as initial resistance, while breach below $83.45 could target the 100% extension at $77.50.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of resistance exists at $87.80–$88.00 (Fib 38.2%, prior consolidation, 50-day MA). Notable divergence appears between the oversold KDJ/RSI readings and persistent price declines, though the lack of corresponding volume spikes and MACD confirmation diminishes its reversal significance. Watch for bullish candlestick patterns at $83.45 alongside volume expansion to validate reversal signals. Probabilistically, the current setup favors continued consolidation with a moderate chance of technical rebound near $83 support, but sustained recovery requires reconquering the $87.80 confluence zone.