Estee Lauder Shares Jump 8.69% on Analyst Upgrades, Institutional Buying Despite Mixed Earnings, Insider Sales

The Estee Lauder (EL) shares surged to a record high since October 2025 on October 15, 2025, with an intraday gain of 2.26%. The stock has risen 8.69% over three consecutive trading days, marking a 0.28% increase in the latest session. This upward momentum follows a strategic shift in analyst sentiment and institutional confidence, despite mixed operational results and insider selling activity.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan upgraded EL to “buy” and “overweight,” respectively, raising price targets to $115 and $114. These moves underscore optimism about the company’s restructuring efforts and holiday season sales potential. However, 28 analysts still maintain a “Hold” consensus, with an average target of $91.30. The divergent views highlight ongoing uncertainty about EL’s ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges and sustain growth.

Recent quarterly results revealed a 11.9% year-over-year revenue decline to $3.41 billion, driven by weak travel retail sales and soft demand in key markets. While the $0.09 EPS beat reflected cost-cutting measures, operating margin contraction and a 33% drop in diluted EPS raised concerns about profitability. Analysts note that Goldman Sachs’ $115 price target assumes a reversal of these trends, which remains unproven.

Insider transactions have drawn attention, with two directors and a VP offloading shares totaling $928,882.26 in late August. Institutional investors, however, have increased stakes, including Kessler Investment Group and Voya, which boosted holdings by 4.6% and 29.5%, respectively. This contrast between insider skepticism and institutional buying reflects a divided market outlook.

Valuation debates persist, with the Simply Wall St DCF model estimating a fair value of $89.39 and a community-driven projection of $93.26. The stock’s price-to-sales ratio of 2.3x, above the industry average, suggests a premium valuation tied to brand strength but also risks of overcorrection. Strategic initiatives, including a 20% reduction in middle management and digital expansion, aim to address these challenges.

EL’s long-term success hinges on stabilizing revenue, expanding in high-growth regions like Asia-Pacific, and maintaining product innovation. While recent analyst upgrades and institutional support signal cautious optimism, unresolved operational pressures and geopolitical risks remain critical hurdles for the stock’s trajectory.