Estee Lauder Shares Jump 4.48% as Technicals Signal Bullish Rebound From Key Support

The Estee Lauder (EL) shares rose 4.48% in the most recent session, closing at $87.40 after trading between $85.11 and $87.66. This rebound follows a sharp 3.64% decline in the prior session, reflecting heightened volatility near key technical levels. Below is a comprehensive technical analysis of EL’s price action based on the one-year dataset.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal critical inflection points. The 4.48% bullish engulfing candle on 2025-09-15 completely overshadowed the prior session’s bearish body, suggesting strong rejection of the $83.45–$83.65 support zone. Earlier, a long upper wick on 2025-09-04 (high: $92.21, close: $87.46) signaled exhaustion near $92 resistance, leading to a subsequent 4.86% drop. These patterns highlight established resistance at $92–$92.50 and pivotal support at $83.50–$84.00.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) oscillates around $85, while the 200-day MA anchors near $78, confirming a broader uptrend. However, the 100-day MA (≈$86) recently converged with price, acting as dynamic resistance during the September pullback. The 50-day MA crossing below the 100-day MA in late August signaled intermediate-term weakness. Current prices trading above all three MAs post-rally suggests potential trend rejuvenation if $87.40 sustains as support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram turned positive in early September but remains near the zero line, indicating weak momentum conviction. Concurrently, the KDJ’s %K line (fast stochastic) rebounded from oversold territory (<20) on 2025-09-12, now nearing overbought (>80) with a bullish crossover. While both oscillators support short-term upside, the MACD’s flat signal line warrants caution. A bullish divergence occurred in late August when price made lower lows while KDJ registered higher lows, foreshadowing the recent rebound.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply in August (bandwidth peak: 15% of price) during the drop to $83.45, then contracted to 8% by mid-September, signaling reduced selling pressure. The recent close near the upper band ($88) aligns with bullish momentum, but consistent upper-band tagging may precede a pullback. Notably, the August breakdown saw prices breach the lower band twice, underscoring $83.45 as a volatility support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume spikes validated key reversals: a 12.9M share sell-off on 2025-08-20 confirmed breakdown momentum, while the 4.48% rally on 2025-09-15 occurred on above-average volume (3.3M vs. 20-day avg: 2.8M), supporting sustainability. However, the recovery from the $83.45 low lacked significant volume conviction until the latest session, introducing skepticism about trend strength.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded from oversold (29.6) on 2025-09-12 to 56.3 currently, reflecting improved momentum but remaining below overbought thresholds. Notably, RSI held above 30 during the August–September decline, diverging positively from price’s lower lows – a classic warning that downside momentum was fading. While not yet overbought, proximity to 60 may invite near-term consolidation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the rally from June 2025’s low ($67.31) to September’s high ($92.21), the 61.8% retracement level aligns precisely at $83.50. The recent bounce from this level – reinforced by the $84 psychological support – validates its technical significance. Should upside resume, the 23.6% retracement ($88.90) and the 38.2% level ($86.20) now act as immediate resistance and support, respectively.
Confluence & Divergence
A notable confluence exists at $83.50–$84.00, where Bollinger support, Fibonacci retracement, and volume-based demand converge. The September rebound from this zone – supported by bullish KDJ/MACD crossovers – strengthens its relevance. However, a divergence emerged in late August: RSI and KDJ improved while prices set lower lows, forewarning the recovery. Near-term caution is advised as RSI approaches 60 and prices test the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting consolidation probability before challenging $90–$92 resistance. Overall, technical structure leans cautiously bullish above $83.50, but sustained volume is needed to overcome the 50/100-day MA confluence near $87.