Estee Lauder Jumps 8.79% In 3 Days As Bullish Signals Converge

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) rose 3.32% in the most recent session, closing at $95.76 and marking its third consecutive day of gains, with a cumulative 8.79% increase over this period. This technical analysis evaluates EL's price action using multiple indicators to assess trend strength, potential reversals, and key levels.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal a bullish "Three White Soldiers" formation over the last three sessions, characterized by consecutive higher closes on increasing real bodies. This signals strong buying momentum and potential continuation. Key resistance is observed at $96.43 (October 8 high), while support rests near $88.66 (October 6 low) and the psychological $85 level, aligning with the September 25 low of $83.99. A sustained close above $96.43 would open the path toward the $100 psychological barrier.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately $86.50) and 100-day SMA (approximately $82.70) both slope upward, confirming a bullish medium-term trend. The current price ($95.76) trades notably above both averages, with the 50-day SMA recently crossing above the 100-day SMA—a "golden cross" that may signal sustained upward momentum. This alignment suggests robust intermediate-term support near the $85–$87 zone.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram is positive and expanding, indicating accelerating bullish momentum as the MACD line trends above its signal line. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator shows %K and %D values near 85–90, reflecting overbought territory after the rapid ascent. While this suggests near-term exhaustion risk, the absence of bearish divergences implies trend strength. The KDJ curve remains upward-sloping, supporting continuation potential absent reversal triggers.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident as bands widen following the price surge above the upper band ($94.50, estimated 20-day basis). This signals breakout confirmation but also raises overbought concerns. A close back inside the bands may precede consolidation, though the mid-band (20-day SMA near $89) now acts as dynamic support. Bandwidth remains above average, favoring volatile swings.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume rose 82% during the three-day rally, peaking at 3.74 million shares on October 8, validating the bullish breakout. This divergence from the preceding consolidation phase’s lower volume reinforces conviction. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for the rally period ($92.20) now serves as intraday support, with elevated volume on up days sustaining upward credibility.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~75) resides in overbought territory, suggesting fading upside momentum. However, RSI readings above 70 have persisted during strong uptrends before, and no bearish divergence is evident. This warrants caution for pullbacks but does not yet indicate reversal. A dip below 70 would signal cooling without structural damage.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $60.99 (May 9, 2025) and swing high of $97.44 (October 11, 2024), key retracement levels are derived. The recent close near $95.76 exceeds the 78.6% retracement ($89.64), approaching full recovery. The 100% level ($97.44) is now critical resistance. Confluence exists here with horizontal resistance, making $97.44 a decisive barrier for further upside.
Confluence and Divergences
Strong confluence appears between volume-supported price action, moving average alignments, MACD momentum, and Fibonacci progress beyond $89.64. Divergences are limited: RSI and Bollinger Bands flag overbought conditions, yet align with trend strength. The absence of bearish momentum divergences tempers reversal concerns. Traders should monitor $97.44 resistance for breakout confirmation or profit-taking triggers, with pullbacks likely contained above $89.64 Fibonacci support.