Estee Lauder Jumps 3.88% on Bullish Technicals and Heavy Volume

Opening Context
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) rose 3.88% to $95.26 in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of gains totaling 6.87%, supported by above-average volume of 3.64 million shares. This upward momentum provides the immediate backdrop for our technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal a potential bullish reversal pattern. The August 12 candle formed a hammer (low: $89.29, close: $91.70), followed by an August 13 bullish engulfing candle (open near $91.70, close: $95.26), suggesting buyer dominance. Key resistance is evident at $95.47 (August 13 high), aligning with the psychological $100 level. Support emerges at $90.00 (July 24 and August 11 lows) and $87.00 (June 16 and July 14 swing points).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) near $84.50 and the 100-day MA near $79.00 both slope upward, signaling an intermediate-term uptrend. However, the 200-day MA at $78.00 appears flatter, reflecting longer-term consolidation. Current price ($95.26) trades above all three MAs, confirming bullish near-term momentum. A sustained break above $95.50 could accelerate upside potential, while failure to hold the 50-day MA would challenge the bullish structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover above its signal line, with the histogram expanding positively—indicating strengthening upward momentum. KDJ reflects overbought conditions (K: 85, D: 82, J: 91), though such readings can persist in strong trends. Confluence exists with the MACD’s bullish signal, but traders may watch for KDJ bearish divergences if price advances further without oscillator confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Bands are moderately wide (20-day SMA: $90.20, upper band: $96.50, lower band: $83.90), suggesting active price discovery. The August 13 close near the upper band signals short-term strength. Band contraction preceded the August rally, indicating a volatility squeeze resolved to the upside. A close above $96.50 would signal breakout continuation potential.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains were validated by rising volume (August 12: 2.71M shares; August 13: 3.64M shares), confirming buyer conviction. Notable volume spikes accompanied key rallies (e.g., July 10: 5.90M shares, +6.34%; July 2: 6.99M shares, +4.08%). Supportive volume on upside days suggests accumulation. Conversely, weakness below $90 should ideally show lower volume to indicate lack of distribution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (using average gain/loss calculation) reads 61—above neutral (50) but below overbought (70). This suggests moderate bullish momentum without immediate exhaustion signals. Divergences would emerge if new price highs occur while RSI fails to exceed its prior peak (e.g., July peak ~67). Current levels allow room for further upside if momentum persists.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the June 13 low ($67.31) and July 10 high ($92.65) as anchor points:
- The 61.8% retracement ($83.60) aligned with the August 11 intraday low ($88.96) and July 24 close ($86.77).
- Recent price action rejected the 38.2% level ($90.80) as support.
- A break above the 0% extension ($92.65) targets the 123.6% level at $99.50, near psychological $100 resistance. Confluence exists between Fibonacci levels and horizontal price barriers.
Synthesis & Confluence Points
Convergence of bullish signals includes:
1. MACD bullish crossover + RSI uptrend validating price strength.
2. Volume-supported breakout above $92 resistance.
3. Golden cross potential (50-day crossing 100-day MA) reinforcing trend.
The $95.50–$96.50 zone poses immediate resistance (August 13 high + Bollinger upper band). Sustained trade above $96.50 could catalyze a rally toward $99.50–$100.00 (Fibonacci extension + psychological). Key support remains $90.00–$91.00 (Fibonacci 38.2% + moving averages), with a breach signaling correction risk toward $87.00. While short-term overbought readings exist, the technical structure leans bullish absent a violation of $90.00.