Estée Lauder Shares Rise 3.18% Amid Bullish Technical Signals And Recovery Hopes

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) shares advanced 3.18% to close at $86.66 on 2025-09-26, marking a recovery from recent lows amid mixed technical signals.
Candlestick Theory
The daily chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern forming between September 25 ($83.99 close) and September 26 ($86.66 close), suggesting potential reversal momentum. Immediate resistance is established at $87.75 (recent swing high on September 24), with secondary resistance at the psychological $90.00 level. Support is firm near $83.12 (September 25 low), which held during two consecutive tests, indicating strong buyer interest at this level.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($86.20) and 100-day SMA ($85.80) recently formed a bearish cross below the 200-day SMA ($87.90), signaling persistent long-term downward pressure. However, the current price ($86.66) has reclaimed the 50-day SMA, while the 20-day SMA ($85.30) shows tentative upward inflection. This divergence between short-term improvement and longer-term bearish alignment warrants caution.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive for the first time in three weeks, with the MACD line converging toward a bullish crossover above the signal line. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows %K (58) and %D (55) emerging from oversold territory (<30 on September 25). This dual momentum improvement signals waning bearish pressure, though both indicators remain below overbought thresholds, leaving room for continued recovery.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bandwidth contracted to 3-month lows on September 23, preceding the recent volatility expansion. The price rebounded from the lower band ($83.12) and now approaches the mid-band ($86.00). This squeeze resolution favors upside potential, with the upper band ($88.80) serving as the next technical target if momentum persists.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 3.18% advance on September 26 occurred on below-average volume (2.35M shares vs. 15-day avg: 2.68M), creating a mild bearish divergence. Notably, the preceding down day (September 25, -1.57%) saw significantly higher volume (4.39M), suggesting capitulation. For sustained recovery, confirmation through volume expansion above the 20-day average is essential.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 48.5 resides squarely in neutral territory, recovering from oversold conditions (26.5 on September 25) but remaining below the overbought threshold of 70. This positioning allows for potential near-term upside without immediate reversal pressure, though traders should monitor for divergence on retests of resistance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent downswing from $90.60 (September 17 high) to $83.12 (September 25 low) reveals key thresholds: the 38.2% level at $86.12 was breached during the last session, while the 50% retracement ($86.86) capped the intraday high ($86.87). This exact rejection at the 50% level establishes technical resistance. A decisive close above $86.86 would expose the 61.8% level at $87.74. Confluence exists between the 50% Fibonacci resistance and the 20-day SMA, reinforcing this barrier's significance.
Confluence occurs at the $86.80–87.00 zone, where Fibonacci resistance, the Bollinger mid-band, and the 20-day SMA converge, creating a critical technical pivot. Notable divergence exists between improving momentum oscillators (MACD/KDJ) and volume weakness during the latest advance. The technical structure suggests cautious optimism for further recovery, contingent on overcoming the $86.86 resistance with volume confirmation. Failure to breach this barrier may trigger range-bound consolidation between $83.00–87.00.