EQT Rebounds 3.98% After 9.55% Plunge As Technicals Signal Tentative Reversal

Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows significant bearish momentum for EQT, culminating in a 9.55% plunge on July 21, 2025, marked by a long red candle closing near lows after gapping down. This was followed by a hammer formation on July 24 (low: $52.37, close: $54.03), suggesting tentative support at the $52.50–$53.00 zone. The subsequent 3.98% rally formed a bullish engulfing pattern, hinting at short-term reversal potential if momentum sustains. Key resistance is evident at $54.50–$55.00 (recent highs), while support remains firm near $52.37–$52.50.
Moving Average Theory
EQT trades below all major moving averages, signaling a bearish long-term trend. The 50-day MA (approx. $55.00) capped rallies in mid-July, while the 100-day MA ($56.80) and 200-day MA ($50.20) reinforce resistance layers. The 50-day crossing below the 200-day in May 2025 confirmed a "death cross," sustaining downward pressure. Recent price recovery above the 200-day MA suggests this level may now act as dynamic support. A break above the 50-day MA is needed to signal near-term bullishness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows bearish momentum but with nascent divergence: price made a lower low in late July ($51.26) while the MACD histogram moderated, suggesting weakening selling pressure. The signal line remains below zero, however, requiring confirmation for reversal. KDJ exited oversold territory (K: 25, D: 20) on July 24, with a bullish crossover (K > D) supporting the rebound. Current KDJ levels (K: 55, D: 40) indicate neutral momentum, lacking clear overbought signals.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during July’s sell-off, with prices breaching the lower band on July 21–23. The July 24 rebound from the lower band ($52.37) coincided with a band contraction, implying reduced bearish momentum. EQT now trades near the middle band ($54.20), suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers. A sustained move above $54.50 could target the upper band ($56.30).
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution dominated July’s decline, notably the July 21 plunge (-9.55%) on elevated volume (14.7M shares). The recovery on July 24 saw the highest volume in six sessions (12.6M shares), validating bullish conviction. However, volume retreated during intermediate rallies (e.g., July 18 and 14), questioning sustainability. Sustained gains require volume expansion above the 10M-share average.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI dipped to 28 on July 23, confirming oversold conditions and preceding the 3.98% rebound. Current RSI (56) is neutral but rising, aligning with short-term momentum recovery. It remains below the bullish threshold (60), warranting caution. Divergence occurred in late July as price hit $51.26 (lower low) while RSI formed a higher low, hinting at underlying strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the March 2025 peak ($57.37) and April 2025 trough ($42.42) reveals key levels. The 38.2% retracement ($52.10) anchored July’s rebound, acting as robust support. Resistance converges at the 50% level ($54.90) and 61.8% retracement ($57.70), aligning with moving averages and prior price congestion. The recent close ($54.03) now challenges the 50% retracement, a critical pivot for further upside.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence: Support near $52.50 aligns with the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, the 200-day MA, and the July 24 hammer candle. Resistance at $54.90–$55.00 merges the 50% Fibonacci level, 100-day MA, and July’s swing highs.
Divergence: Bearish momentum divergence is seen in MACD and RSI versus price during July’s lows, suggesting potential trend exhaustion. However, volume divergence persists, with recoveries lacking consistent volume backing.
Conclusion
EQT shows signs of stabilizing after a steep decline, with technical indicators suggesting short-term bullish potential. The $52.50 support zone is critical; a break below may resume the downtrend. Conversely, sustained trading above $54.50, supported by volume expansion, could challenge resistance at $55.00–$56.00. While oversold signals and indicator divergences hint at upside, the bearish moving average alignment and volume inconsistencies necessitate confirmation for a durable trend reversal.