Eog Resources desplomada un 2,5% frente a la turbulencia en el sector petrolero: qué está impulsando la venta?

Summary
• EOG Resources (EOG) trades at $105.31, down 2.5% from its previous close of $108.01
• Intraday range spans $104.80 to $108.38, reflecting sharp volatility
• Sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) also declines 1.43%, signaling broader industry pressure

EOG Resources is under intense bearish pressure as oil prices face headwinds from OPEC+ output decisions and geopolitical risks. The stock’s 2.5% drop has pushed it closer to its 52-week low of $102.52, with technical indicators and options activity pointing to deepening bearish sentiment. Traders are now scrutinizing whether this selloff is a short-term correction or a sign of deeper sector weakness.

OPEC+ Output Stance and Geopolitical Risks Weigh on EOG
The sharp decline in EOG Resources is driven by two key factors: OPEC+’s decision to maintain output levels through Q1 2026 and escalating geopolitical risks in oil infrastructure. Recent news of a drone strike on Kazakhstan’s CPC terminal and Saudi Arabia’s push for market share have intensified concerns about oversupply and geopolitical instability. Additionally, the MACD histogram turned negative (0.05) and RSI dipped to 52.93, signaling weakening momentum. Options data reveals heavy put buying at the $105 strike, with EOG20251219P105 seeing 131 contracts traded, reflecting investor anticipation of further downside.

Oil & Gas Sector Under Pressure as XOM Trails EOG’s Slide
The broader oil & gas exploration sector is in retreat, with sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 1.43%. This synchronized decline underscores sector-wide concerns about OPEC+’s output strategy and geopolitical risks. While EOG’s drop is more pronounced, the sector’s collective weakness highlights shared vulnerabilities to oil price volatility and regulatory headwinds.

Bearish Options Playbook: EOG20251219P105 and EOG20251219P106 Lead the Charge
• 52W High/Low: $138.18 / $102.52 (current price near 52W low)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $113.14, Middle $108.96, Lower $104.78 (price near lower band)
• MACD: 0.483 (Signal 0.432), Histogram -0.05 (bearish divergence)
• RSI: 52.93 (neutral but trending downward)

Technical indicators suggest EOG is in a short-term bearish phase, with support levels at $104.78 and $102.52. The 200-day MA at $115.45 remains a critical resistance. Options traders are capitalizing on this setup, with two contracts standing out:

• EOG20251219P105 (Put, $105 strike, 12/19 exp):
- IV: 26.27% (moderate)
- LVR: 91.55%
- Delta: -0.458 (sensitive to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0657 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1225 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 12,627 (high liquidity)
This contract offers a 91.55% leverage ratio and high gamma, making it ideal for a 5% downside scenario. Projected payoff: max(0, $100.04 - $105) = $0 (break-even at $105).

• EOG20251219P106 (Put, $106 strike, 12/19 exp):
- IV: 27.48% (moderate)
- LVR: 60.51%
- Delta: -0.576 (strong bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.0512 (lower time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1156 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 2,020 (solid liquidity)
This contract’s high delta and moderate IV make it a strong candidate for a 5% drop. Projected payoff: max(0, $100.04 - $106) = $0 (break-even at $106).

Action Alert: Aggressive bears should prioritize EOG20251219P105 for a 5% downside play, while EOG20251219P106 offers a safer entry with lower time decay. Both contracts align with the bearish technical setup.

Backtest EOG Resources Stock Performance
The backtest of EOG's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -2% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 49.58%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.59%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.96%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.08%, which occurred on day 57, suggesting that while the stock tends to recover, the magnitude of the rebound is generally modest.

Act Now: EOG’s Bearish Setup Demands Strategic Short-Side Plays
EOG Resources’ 2.5% drop reflects a confluence of OPEC+ policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, with technical indicators and options activity confirming bearish momentum. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low and the sector leader XOM’s 1.43% decline suggest further downside is likely. Traders should monitor the $104.78 support level and OPEC+’s next move. Watch for a breakdown below $104.78 or a shift in OPEC+ policy to gauge the selloff’s sustainability.