Enso/USDC Market Overview: Volatility Peaks, Bearish Momentum, and Oversold Signals

Summary
• Enso/USDC closed lower after a volatile 24-hour session with sharp intraday swings.
• Momentum turned bearish as RSI dipped toward oversold territory and volume surged after 03:00 ET.
• Price broke below key 1.26–1.28 support clusters, signaling possible continuation of downward bias.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply after 01:00 ET, reflecting increased short-term volatility.
• Notional turnover spiked over $100M after 15:00 ET as price collapsed to 1.105.

Enso/USDC (ENSOUSDC) opened at 1.272 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.167 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour range spanned 1.276 (high) to 1.015 (low). Total volume reached 437,969.59 USDC, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $539,319. Price action exhibited a bearish trend, with notable breakdowns after 21:30 ET and a sharp sell-off after 15:45 ET.

The candlestick formation revealed a bearish engulfing pattern early on 2025-11-03 as price reversed lower from a brief bullish spike. A long lower shadow near 1.105 at 15:45 ET suggested aggressive selling pressure, which was confirmed by a volume spike of 76,413.69 USDC. On the 20-period moving average (15-min chart), price closed well below the MA, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA also acted as a resistance level, with price failing to hold above it after 07:00 ET.

MACD turned negative throughout the session, with the line crossing below the signal line around 02:00 ET and maintaining bearish momentum thereafter. RSI hit oversold levels (~25) at 15:45 ET, indicating potential exhaustion in the downward move. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 01:00 ET, reflecting heightened volatility. Price sat near the lower band for much of the session, especially after 15:00 ET, indicating bearish control.

Volume and turnover diverged after 03:00 ET, with notional turnover surging despite decreasing volume, suggesting possible liquidity absorption by large sellers. The price retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the 1.294–1.015 swing, aligning with the close at 1.167, where the 20-period MA also resides. This confluence of levels may support a temporary rebound. However, a break below 1.14–1.15 could extend the decline toward 1.10–1.12.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when ENSOUSDC’s RSI dips below 30, signaling oversold conditions, and holding for five days with a stop-loss at the 50-period MA. Given the recent RSI bottom at 25 and the price hovering near 1.105, this would have triggered a buy signal. Historical analysis of such signals over the last 30 days would provide insight into the strategy’s viability, particularly during periods of high volatility and liquidity shifts. Traders might also consider incorporating a 5% trailing stop to manage downside risks.