Infrastructure energética en economías ricas en recursos: Navegando los riesgos de gobernanza y regulación en los mercados emergentes

The global energy transition is reshaping investment priorities, with resource-rich emerging markets at the forefront of both opportunity and risk. Countries like Pakistan, Indonesia, Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Argentina hold vast reserves of critical minerals and energy resources, yet their potential is often constrained by governance and regulatory compliance challenges. These issues-ranging from corruption to fragmented legal frameworks-pose significant hurdles for investors seeking to capitalize on the energy transition while balancing sustainability and profitability.

Governance Metrics: Corruption and Institutional Weakness

Corruption remains a persistent barrier to energy infrastructure development in resource-rich economies. Indonesia's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) score of 37 in 2024, while a modest improvement from 34 in 2023, still reflects systemic issues in the energy sector, where political elites exploit resources for personal gain. This undermines foreign direct investment (FDI), as firms wary of bribery risks avoid high-risk markets. Similarly, Pakistan's governance gaps have delayed the implementation of the Climate Change Act of 2017, leaving climate finance far below the $348 billion needed by 2030. In both cases, weak institutional capacity and corruption divert resources from critical energy projects, deterring long-term investment.

The DRC, despite its recent regulatory reforms, faces similar challenges. While Ordinance No. 25/025 streamlines licensing, implementation remains hampered by weak land tenure systems and opaque land rights. Investors must navigate these governance risks through robust due diligence and stakeholder engagement to mitigate delays and project failures.

Regulatory Reforms and Market Uncertainty

Regulatory shifts in emerging markets often reflect broader geopolitical and economic priorities, creating both opportunities and uncertainties. In the DRC, Ordinance No. 25/025 aims to attract private investment. However, the absence of detailed implementation guidelines for renewable energy development means investors must wait for ministerial decrees to finalize project parameters. This regulatory ambiguity can delay timelines and increase costs, particularly for projects requiring cross-border coordination, such as the $1.5 billion DRC-Angola transmission line.

Argentina's energy sector, under President Javier Milei, has taken a starkly different approach. The government's prioritization of fossil fuels-exemplified by the expansion of Vaca Muerta gas fields and LNG infrastructure-contrasts with its obligations under the Paris Agreement. The expiration of renewable energy incentives under Law 27.191 has further stymied progress, with the renewable energy mix stagnating at 16% despite initial targets of 20% by 2025. Meanwhile, the Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones framework, which offers tax breaks for large fossil fuel and LNG projects, lacks environmental safeguards, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.

Chile, another critical mineral hub, faces its own regulatory crossroads. The government's exploration of lithium nationalization has introduced uncertainty for private investors, particularly as global demand for battery-grade lithium surges. This mirrors broader geopolitical tensions over critical minerals, where immature commodity markets and geopolitical competition complicate regulatory compliance.

Case Studies: Project Delays and Compliance Outcomes

The interplay between governance and regulatory risks is evident in specific projects. In the DRC, the implementation of Ordinance No. 25/025 has led to delays. For example, the $1.5 billion DRC-Angola transmission line, while aligned with regional energy integration goals, faces bureaucratic hurdles in securing cross-border permits and environmental certifications.

In Argentina, the RIGI framework's minimum investment threshold of $200 million has attracted large-scale projects like the Vicuña copper venture between BHP and Lundin Mining Corp. However, delays in regulatory implementation-such as fragmented provincial policies and the need for unified national guidelines-have slowed progress. The BHP-Lundin joint venture's application for RIGI benefits underscores the framework's potential to attract capital but also highlights the risks of regulatory fragmentation.

Mitigating Risks: Strategies for Investors

Investors in emerging market energy infrastructure must adopt strategies to navigate these governance and regulatory challenges. First, robust compliance programs are essential to address corruption risks, particularly in countries with low CPI scores like Indonesia and Pakistan. Second, engaging with local stakeholders-governments, communities, and NGOs-can help preempt conflicts and ensure alignment with ESG criteria. Third, leveraging advanced analytics and cloud-based risk management platforms can enable real-time scenario planning, a growing trend in the energy risk management services market.

For projects in the DRC and Argentina, investors should prioritize regulatory clarity and long-term policy stability. In the DRC, this means monitoring the rollout of ministerial decrees under Ordinance No. 25/025, while in Argentina, it requires assessing the alignment of RIGI incentives with global sustainability goals.

Conclusion

Energy infrastructure in resource-rich emerging markets is fraught with governance and regulatory risks, yet these challenges also present opportunities for investors who can navigate them effectively. By prioritizing transparency, stakeholder engagement, and adaptive risk management, investors can unlock the potential of these markets while contributing to sustainable development. As the global energy transition accelerates, the ability to balance regulatory compliance with strategic investment will define success in these high-stakes environments.