Eli Lilly Tempers Revenue Expectations; Stock Drops Amid Market Reaction

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) has revised its revenue guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, leading to a decline in its stock price. The company announced that its expected 2024 revenue is now $45.0 billion, $400 million below the guidance range issued in October 2024. For Q4 2024, Lilly anticipates revenue of approximately $13.5 billion, $400 million below the low end of its previously issued guidance. The company's stock price fell over 6% on Tuesday, January 14, following the announcement.

The revised revenue expectations were driven by slower-than-expected growth in the U.S. incretin market, lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end, and progress in the manufacturing build-out. Despite these challenges, Lilly's other medicines, including its oncology, immunology, and neuroscience portfolios, performed within expectations, with non-incretin revenue growing by 20% compared to Q4 2023.

Lilly anticipates revenue growth contributions in 2025 from new medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, and Kisunla; approvals of new indications for existing Lilly medicines; launches of Mounjaro in additional worldwide markets; and potential launches of new medicines like imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer. The company expects 2025 revenue to be in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, reflecting a 32% increase at the midpoint compared to expected 2024 revenue.



Analysts remain bullish on Eli Lilly's long-term prospects, with an average rating of "Strong Buy" and a 12-month stock price forecast of $980.48, representing a 31.30% increase from the latest price. Despite the short-term stock price decline, investors are optimistic about the company's strong pipeline and growth prospects.

Eli Lilly plans to share its full Q4 2024 financial results, including other metrics included in its financial guidance, and 2025 financial guidance on February 6, 2025. The company's preliminary financial information is subject to change as a result of financial closing procedures and other developments.