Eli Lilly Stock Tanks as Q4 Revenue Guidance Cut; Weight Loss/Diabetes Drugs Sales Expected at $5.5 Billion

Shares of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) plummeted on Tuesday after the pharmaceutical giant cut its fourth-quarter revenue guidance, citing slower-than-expected growth in the incretin market and lower-than-anticipated channel inventory. The company now expects around $5.5 billion in sales from its weight loss and diabetes drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, in the fourth quarter. Eli Lilly's stock price tanked, falling by approximately 8% at the last check on Tuesday.

Eli Lilly's CEO, David Ricks, attributed the slower-than-expected growth in the incretin market to two primary factors: lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end and a faster acceleration of growth for the quarter that was not met. These factors, combined with the strong performance of other Eli Lilly medicines, led to the company's Q4 results falling short of its previous guidance.

The company now expects fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $13.5 billion, representing a 45% year-over-year growth compared to the consensus of $13.97 billion. Eli Lilly's expected 2024 revenue is $400 million, or about 3%, below the guidance range issued during the third-quarter earnings. The guidance includes approximately $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound.

Eli Lilly also shared its 2025 revenue guidance, anticipating sales between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion compared to the consensus of $58.6 billion. The company anticipates revenue growth contributions in 2025 from new Lilly medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, and Kisunla; approvals of new indications for existing Lilly medicines; launches of Mounjaro in additional worldwide markets, as well as potential launches of new medicines such as imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer. Incretin market and channel dynamics have been factored into the 2025 revenue guidance range.



Eli Lilly's stock price has been volatile in recent months, with the company's shares trading at around $783.95 as of January 14, 2025. The stock has experienced significant fluctuations, with a 52-week range of $683.95 to $875.00. The company's market capitalization is approximately $761.1 billion, making it the most valuable pharmaceutical company in the world.



| Year | Revenue Guidance (in billion) |
| --- | --- |
| 2024 | $45.0 |
| 2025 | $58.0 - $61.0 |

Eli Lilly's revenue guidance for 2024 and 2025 reflects the company's strong performance and growth prospects. The company's weight loss and diabetes drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have been driving its financial performance, with sales of Mounjaro totaling $3.1 billion in Q2, compared to $979.7 million in the same period last year. Zepbound, launched in the US in November 2023, saw revenues of $1.24 billion for Q2, achieving blockbuster status for the calendar year with sales so far of over $1.7 billion.

Eli Lilly's manufacturing expansion plans are expected to significantly impact future sales and market share. The company plans to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024. This increased production will help the company meet the growing demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have been driving the company's financial performance. The manufacturing expansion will also enable Eli Lilly to launch Mounjaro in additional worldwide markets, further increasing its market share.

In conclusion, Eli Lilly's stock price tanked following the company's cut in Q4 revenue guidance, with sales of its weight loss and diabetes drugs expected to reach around $5.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The company's manufacturing expansion plans and strong pipeline of new medicines, such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, and Kisunla, position Eli Lilly for continued growth and success in the coming years. Investors should closely monitor the company's progress and potential catalysts for growth, such as the launch of new medicines and the expansion of existing product lines.