Eli Lilly's Q4 Results: A Mixed Bag, but 2025 Guidance Remains Strong

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results on January 14, 2025, with a mixed performance that fell short of expectations for weight-loss drug sales but maintained strong guidance for 2025. The company's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter and full year were as follows:

* Q4 2024 revenue: $13.5 billion (expected: $13.94 billion)
* Q4 2024 EPS: $2.49 (expected: $2.52)
* Full-year 2024 revenue: $45.0 billion (expected: $45.49 billion)
* Full-year 2024 EPS: $8.75 (expected: $8.84)

The company's weight-loss drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, contributed to the revenue growth, with sales of $3.5 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively. However, these figures fell short of expectations, primarily due to slower-than-anticipated growth in the U.S. incretin market and lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end.



Despite the mixed results, Eli Lilly maintained its strong guidance for 2025, anticipating revenue between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion, representing growth of 32% at the midpoint compared to expected 2024 revenue. The company expects revenue growth contributions from new Lilly medicines, approvals of new indications for existing medicines, launches of Mounjaro in additional worldwide markets, and potential launches of new medicines such as imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer.



Eli Lilly's CEO, David A. Ricks, attributed the Q4 results to slower market growth and lower channel inventory, but expressed confidence in the company's ability to continue its momentum in 2025. The company plans to bring additional manufacturing capacity online, expecting to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024.



In conclusion, Eli Lilly's Q4 results were a mixed bag, with weight-loss drug sales falling short of expectations. However, the company maintained strong guidance for 2025, driven by new medicines, expanded manufacturing capacity, and international market growth. Investors should closely monitor the company's progress in capturing market share in the obesity and diabetes markets, as well as its geographic expansion and manufacturing expansion plans.