Eli Lilly Q2 Earnings Preview: J.P. Morgan Expects Strong Growth, Attractive Setup

Eli Lilly is poised for continued growth, particularly in its GLP-1 franchise, ahead of Q2 earnings. J.P. Morgan analyst Chris Schott sees strong momentum in Mounjaro and Zepbound, with total sales projected at $14.8 billion, up 30% YoY. The analyst models EPS at $5.49, slightly below consensus, but maintains a bullish full-year outlook and assigns an Overweight rating with a $1,100 price target, implying a 41% upside potential.

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is gearing up to report its Q2 earnings on August 7, with analysts expecting the company to maintain its strong momentum, particularly in its GLP-1 franchise. J.P. Morgan analyst Chris Schott has highlighted an "attractive setup" for the stock heading into earnings, driven by robust growth in Mounjaro and Zepbound [1].

Schott anticipates a strong second quarter, with total sales projected at $14.8 billion, up 30% year-over-year (YoY). This growth is expected to be fueled by robust TRx (total revenue) growth trends across both drugs. Specifically, GLP-1 sales are projected to reach $8.8 billion, representing a 60% increase from the prior year. Zepbound, which captures an estimated 60–65% of the obesity market, and Mounjaro, which continues to gain share, are expected to drive this growth [1].

On the profitability front, Schott models EPS (earnings per share) at $5.49, slightly below consensus due to higher operating expenses tied to a growing late-stage pipeline and increased marketing investments. Despite this, Schott sees continued TRx growth into Q3, with a reacceleration likely by Q4. His full-year outlook remains bullish, forecasting $60.8 billion in revenue and $22.09 in EPS, both ahead of consensus [1].

Schott also sees a "favorable set up" into the upcoming Phase 3 obesity data for orforglipron, Eli Lilly’s once-daily oral GLP-1 candidate. The analyst’s base case expects weight loss in the range of 13–15%, which could be a positive for the stock. Schott continues to view LLY as one of his top picks, citing the company’s durable growth profile, minimal patent expiration risks, and strong visibility well into the next decade [1].

Elsewhere on the Street, sentiment remains positive, with 15 additional Buys, 2 Holds, and 1 Sell combining for a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target of $1,006.27 suggests a one-year gain of ~29% [1].

References:
[1] https://www.tipranks.com/news/load-up-ahead-of-earnings-says-j-p-morgan-about-eli-lilly-stock